Crab crisis in Bering Sea a sign of ‘borealization’
alaskabeacon.com
alaskabeacon.com
Really wild.
> 120,000 thermosyphons were built into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline’s supports in the 1970s.
https://dakotafreepress.com/2021/07/11/permafrost-melting-co...
All of the concern about this project is fundamentally speculative. That doesn't mean the speculation is wrong, but little factoids like that about thermosiphons seem to be thrown into the mix to insinuate more substance and impending doom than can otherwise be fairly shown (at least shown in a popular news article).
If coal is any indication, it's entirely possible that extraction at Willow would become unprofitable long before the lease expires.
This tech is also used on buildings to keep from frost heaving. https://canada.constructconnect.com/joc/news/technology/2016...
It's not that big of a deal, consider the thermal difference between the ground and air. Also, consider it is not using any input energy to do it, simply the evaporation of ammonia!
However, its hardly large enough to move the needle on carbon emissions. I mean compared to the really big forces at work that is nothing. They wont get 30 years of oil out of there, and they know it. So its just rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic -- a project that wont meet its expectations, going into a place that was going to be massively disturbed anyways. In fact, the project may not even get built because they would need to build on permafrost and turns out that is super difficult to do properly especially when its melting. There are many reasons to be pessimistic about the future but the reality is that wether or not this drilling project goes forward does not make any difference in what the future will be like.
There are however a ton of important things we can do as a society to make a better future for ourselves and those who come after us. We can do those things now, even as the death cult around fossil fuels continues its business as usual. In fact, by doing those things we make them less powerful. So while its good to recognize that things are changing irrevocably, its not like we are helpless. The important thing is to find alternatives to the status quo, find ideas that make us more resilient and then support those initiatives.
No doubt huh?
Chances are they will have a lot of really mean things to say instead about our reticence, and how little intact ecology we left them to work with.
Sure. I am amazed at the hard work of the men who cut timber and cut road and railway track through mountains and mined and hunted whales and trapped animals hundreds of years ago despite that they irrevocably destroyed ecosystems.
> Chances are they will have a lot of really mean things to say instead about our reticence, and how little intact ecology we left them to work with.
I'd say the chances are the situation would be quite recognizable, with most people wishing things were better but unwilling to sacrifice much of their own, and the most comfortable and well off who benefit most from and have the largest environmental footprints denouncing others and shifting blame, so some thought will be spared for the whalers of today, but not a great deal.
I know that sounds ridiculous, but compared to many of the other actors up on the Slope, Conoco was pretty damn good.
It’s still sucking hydrocarbons out of the earth, but if someone is going to do it anyway I’d rather it was Conoco than Exxon or Hillcorp.
Those guys aren’t going to stop polluting so they can grow their economies and feed their people.
The U.S. can’t control what China and India’s energy policies are (although it certainly can greatly influence world energy markets), but it can control its own energy policy and should do that. That the U.S. is not is just making things worse.
It's about #10 overall, but most of the countries above it are tiny, and their overall production is negligible.
Canada and Australia do appear above the US on the list, though not radically so. They are somewhat smaller than the US.
Although the US is not literally #1, either overall or per capita, it's one of the best targets for reducing CO2. Its per-capita consumption is so much higher than most that it should be able to look to other developed countries for ways to reduce it, and its overall consumption is so high that any small change will have a disproportionate effect on the total.
That's a lot more words than saying "The US is the largest per-capita producer", but arguing that it isn't is really just arguing over details. The important question is "Who should be taking the biggest steps to reduce CO2" and the answer is unambiguously "The US", followed by China and the developed Western countries.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?most_rec...
This doesn’t help: This project will cover six days of current global consumption.
Why do you jump to this straight over "less fossil fuel consumption?"
We don’t need less people, we need less conspicuous and unnecessary consumption by the few.
The world is in a transition. That transition needs to happen. However, two things are currently true:
* There is a huge demand for oil. Having friendly control (compared to hostile nations) over that flow is likely beneficial to many people in the world.
* Even with more electric vehicles, petro is used in many every day products. It will still be needed.
It's OK to be concerned about the future -- hell, I am. But a lot of hopelessness these days is an the after-effect of doomscrolling through headlines and fitting them into our current biases.
Training your brain to let every contra-worldview headline release T H E B A D C H E M I C A L S is a tough way to get through life.
Let's stop pretending we can reverse history, and let's use knowledge and science to adapt preventively to the changes we can foresee.
https://www.nationalfisherman.com/alaska/deadliest-catch-ret...
Not great.
For example, there are certifications and accreditations fisheries can obtain to prove that eco-friendly methods are used.
There are some folks who think by catch (a very destructive externality from ocean floor trawling) has an impact on this fishery but unfortunately that's more of a guess. The science certainly shows that the temperature anomaly literally preempts reproduction. So heat waves eviscerated an entire generation, perhaps multiple generations.
So can you affect the temperature of the ocean? Not anymore than you can stop global warming. Even if you did everything to become carbon negative, it's gonna be getting warmer before it gets back to normal temperatures.
But stopping eating seafood would be a good start. Lowering demand for them means that they have a chance of surviving through to a time when climate change could be reigned in, maybe in several decades.
Expanding insect production for animal feed would be significant progress.
https://www.seafoodwatch.org/recommendations/download-consum...
Why do you think that?
https://www.vox.com/22429551/climate-change-crisis-exxonmobi...
It's not inconsistent to boycott destructive products as an individual, but political pressure should focus on flat out banning destructive business practices. The electoral system failed to prevent another oil-drilling president from entering office, but it's still possible his administration will be successfully sued in court under USA's (admittedly weak looking) version of Duty of Care laws. The TLDR is that ~some democracies have it baked into the constitution that the government must act in the interests of the citizens, and are getting successfully sued in court to do so, despite regulatory capture and corrupt politicians.
You can attack emissions by limiting supply (stopping new oil drilling projects) or by limiting demand (flying less / driving less etc.). Both should work, since supply and demand are generally balanced. Reducing supply without reducing demand (what you seem to be proposing) will lead to massive price increases and energy poverty. This is confirmed by the energy crisis in Europe this winter, which was the result of a sudden decrease in supply. Reducing demand without reducing supply will lead to massive price decreases, which should increase demand from those that are less worried about climate change.
The transition to renewables can only be done by reducing both supply (less oil drilling) and demand (consumers and industry). I don't see how advocating for flying less, eating less meat, buying heat pumps etc. constitutes greenwashing, even if it oil companies co-opt it to deflect attention from themselves.
I get that change needs to happen at government/ industry levels to see the level of change required, but individuals can (and should) be the change they want to see.
To not make changes to your own life whilst wanting government to force the same changes on all of society seems pretty hypocritical.
This isn't going to do much at all in the grand scheme of things
> They don't have a choice to drive smaller cars?
Most people aren't driving dualies. Usually they're driving sedans. I'd wager, anecdotally, most people cannot afford new, more efficient cars. If they need to get to work to feed their families, and they're strapped for cash, they'll buy an emissions ridden piece of crap just to get there.
People can't hardly live for themselves and you expect them to shoulder all of the burden that the manufacturing and oil industries are causing.
> To not make changes to your own life whilst wanting government to force the same changes on all of society seems pretty hypocritical.
I'd much rather governments ban net-positive carbon emissions by the major offenders entirely and force all further major offenders to shut down, but that doesn't make our government officials rich does it?
What do you think happens if governments do this? On one hand you are saying most people don't have the option to change, but then quickly followup with saying governments should force massive change.
> you expect them to shoulder all of the burden that the manufacturing and oil industries are causing
Ultimately, the issue is that industry is not bearing costs of their activity. We want them to pay for the externalities, so that someone can be paid to cleanup after them, or more likely that they change behaviour to some alternative that has become cost effective.
But these costs will be passed onto the general population. Now instead of having the unrecognised costs loaded onto people through climate change, we will do it explicity. This will be the oil companies, or via whatever replaces that industry. I think that is a good thing, because it will make people vote with their wallets, to change their consumption patterns.
But they'll still have to pay, or change their behaviour. They'll end up eating less meat, more plants. They'll drive smaller cars, buy electric, take public transport, live in smaller houses, fly less.
I agree with needing to do this for us. Externalities should never be unaccounted for, it distorts everything. What I am saying is that it is hypocritical for an individual to campaign for governments to step in and force everyone to adapt enmasse, if they're not prepared to proactively change their behaviour to match the world that they are wanting everyone else to live in.
The industry is looking into alternatives like insects, and typically 30-40% of the feed now comes from vegetable proteins and oils.
On the other hand, farmed Faroese salmon (just next door) has a much higher % of wild-caught fish in its feed, which contributes to the high omega 3 content of Faroese salmon.
It works for me! I haven't gotten anyone pregnant in 30 years!
Also, I tested negative for everything! I don't even have crabs!
These are corporations and factories and rich folks fucking it up for the rest of us.
It's not bulletproof but it's a good rule of thumb, I eat fish once in a blue moon, last time it was a can of "traditionally hand fished" tuna, 40 euros a kilo
If it's cheap as fuck there is no way it's sustainable, you're either abusing nature or fellow humans, or both
There is a shortage of nature. On top of that, the ecosystems are changing, and once they're gone they're probably not coming back.
We could lose half of the population tomorrow and still, eventually, hit that predicted 10 billion souls -- it would just take a lil longer. If WA and BC turn into chaparral things like Salmon and Snow Crab ain't gonna live there any more, and never live there again.
All I'm saying is if you stop eating cheap sea food we won't have to send underpaid humans to risk their lives to catch them. Put you money where your mouth is
Herring is a good bet long term. China will fish the Pacific to death.
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/bycatch/frequent-quest...
I am not trying to excuse bad behavior, but there are never perfect options.
Choosing between the lesser of two or more evils appears to be the adult human condition.
This is important to accept because otherwise people just avoid voting.
The only hopes younger people have is technology and the fact a lot of older politicians support base is dying faster than it can be replaced, so hopefully some newer blood in politics is on the horizon to make some smarter choices.
JFK was last in Congress in 63 years ago, and last alive 60 years ago; the longest serving member of Congress served for 59 years and retired in 2019.
Chuck Schumer was first elected to Congress in 1980, Mitch McConnell in 1984, Kevin McCarthy in 2006, and Hakeem Jeffries in 2012. Only one of them was even in Congress within 20 years of Kennedy’s assassination, much less all of them being in Congress with him.
That outcome is indeed reasonable to expect, but what matters is what happens next. If e.g. the DNC did start losing elections because environmentally minded individuals started voting Green, they're not just going to shrug and keep losing every election. Instead, it would force them to genuinely shift their platform to regain these votes.
The whole lesser of two evils nonsense is just a remarkably effective 'social exploit' to get tens of millions of people to vote not only for people they don't like, but even against their own self interest - in a democracy, in the age of the internet.
> started voting Green, they're not just going to shrug and keep losing every election. Instead, it would force them to genuinely shift their platform to regain these votes.
has this been know to work historically?what i was curious though was in the u.s context (where there is spoiler effect) has it been known historically to work?
In that sort of situation you have the same effect as a strong third party. Politicians had to concern themselves with the interests of voters, or they could actually lose them. Now all they need to do is simply show up on the ballot, and spend the rest of their time making sure people hate and fear "the other side" enough. Accountability is being effectively minimized through this, and civil society destroyed in the process.
This style of politicking is not new, and has countless historic examples demonstrating where it leads. The interests of the voter no longer mattering is but scratching the surface.
[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/nat...
> Now all they need to do is simply show up on the ballot, and spend the rest of their time making sure people hate and fear "the other side" enough.
yea, i feel like in some way gerrymandering is a big component in this?like if you dont ever need to actually need to convince voters in other parties and just appeal to people in your safe district.... doesn't that invite/encourage partisanship even more?
But this is something I don't tend really think about especially much simply because changing this would require both parties to cooperate to make major constitutional changes, that would result in both those parties losing power. The odds of this happening are probably literally zero. By contrast people dropping strategic voting is something that is at least viable to imagine, and could reasonably be expected to help move things in a positive direction. Thanks to the fact elections are basically 50/50 electorally, it doesn't even have to be many people to have a really meaningful impact.
interesting, so gerrymandering being a second-order effect and the main cause being first-past-the-post/non-proportional representation... interesting.
This applies especially for the Green platform - if you're going to advocate for people to meaningfully limit their consumption now in favor of the future of the planet, in a winner-takes-all election system you're not going to get any representation because no politician can gain your vote without losing more votes from the people around you.
[1] - https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/09/14/in-response-to...
For example, when fuel costs rise sufficiently that people would actually have to reduce driving instead of just paying more (to a MUCH smaller extent that would be required to make a dent in climate change, i.e. where MUCH larger price increases would be needed to reduce consumption) people will literally riot to get tax adjustments or subsidies to keep consuming fuel in the previous rates - e.g. last year's protests in Argentina, Peru, Haiti; earlier Gilets Jaunes riots; and in places where the politicians can afford it, they just concede that without a fight because that gets them votes - e.g. California gas tax rebate.
Sure, people will say anything while its just talk, and they will agree (grumpily!) to meaningless changes like paper straws, however, when the push comes to shove and it would actually result in some significant reduction of consumption by the masses, those people will not only vote against that but actually fight tooth and nail to prevent any such measures from being enacted.
Do a survey on whether people are willing to have a carbon tax that's high enough to actually reduce their consumption, where they would sometimes not drive somewhere or not buy something because it's too expensive due to its effect on the climate - you won't get many positive answers. People would be willing to take "some action" like this survey https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans... which determined that ~$15/month would be the limit for most, i.e. a token amount that "takes some action" but does not actually require to change behavior and reduce consumption.
But some places like California are now actively working against this. The argument is that electric retail rates charged to consumers are dramatically higher than the real cost of that energy, so it's not fair for utilities to have to pay retail rates to consumers who contribute to the grid. So the new policy being pushed through will have you receive credit for a tiny fraction of the retail rate for energy you generate. And now all those benefits get reversed.
Actions like this aren't being taken because of voters, to say the least. The reality is that at all levels of politics, corporations are kings and voters are peasants. The irony is that the peasants, exactly like in times of yore, absolutely have the ability to change this - but cannot organize themselves efficiently enough to do so. Even when all it would take in modern times is ticking a different checkbox.
Welcome to politics. The hard fact is that the Republican right-wing of the US is the roadblock to the US tackling emissions and climate change. The reality is that if the Democrats don't appease the center-right of the US with low gas prices and other climate change causing policies, the Republicans will win the votes and usher in an even worse destructive policy. The Democrats are trying to make as much progress as they can without losing the ball; pulling towards what you want while Republicans are pulling the opposite. If you don't balance as much as you can, it gets worse. Such is uninformed democracy.
Fishery collapsed in 2021! The year is not a minor detail!
Can you see why?
So we could wonder what event happened in 2019 to explain the collapse? Climate change? Predators? Fishermen going crazy?
Wrong. The most probable answer is: "nothing happened"... and the second candidate to the pole position is "nobody happened".
Females produce eggs in spring and, as in other crustaceans they have a pelagic cycle. After a while the larvae carried by currents settle in soft sediments and moult into tiny crabs. If they can pass those first years their survival rate boosts. The pelagic larvae known to be difficult to keep alive
The snow crabs are 9 years old on average when fished. This means that the crabs that we are missing in 2020 and 2021 would had been born in (2020 - 9) = 2011!. 2011 and 2012.
What happened in 2011 in the same area? A tsunami in March and a nuclear power plant accident releasing radioactive water to the sea for several months
What we are seeing (In My Arrogant Opinion) is not climate change, or not only this; Is the effect of a mass die-off of >80% of the crab larvae in Alaska by Fukushima water, that happened nine years before but went unnoticed.
The Japanese water traveled to Alaska probably just in time to meet the crab reproductive season and hit the eggs or the larvae in their zoea phase.
Or maybe the scavenger crabs accumulated radioactive stuff after eating fishes and died later.
Of course there was a tsunami also that could have killed some of the adult crabs but didn't happened in Alaska. And the lack of fishermen in the Covid years maybe add a "nobody came to feed the crabs with bycatch" effect.
The populations will recover, as long as Japanese will stop trowing garbage to the sea in the crab reproductive season.