It's never clear to me when to count elements in a SF book as predictions, or merely plot devices for the story. Does the author mean to say "this is what the world will be like by this date, and by the way, here's a story set in that world," or rather "imagine a world where with the following hypothetical changes... now, here's a story that could happen in that world."

I think you probably try to have it both ways. Like, if you discussed a hundred new technologies in your future SF story, and 99 of them didn't pan, but one unlikely one was dead on, you could say "see? I predicted the fact that by 2041, fish can talk. Bit of a visionary, eh? All those other ones were just worldbuilding."

Not saying this is Vinge at all, just that it's a weird business, and hard to tell from the outside where storytelling ends and prediction begins.