I would love to borrow your crystal ball if you can spare it.

I have a really hard time believing that. Syria for example.

I could see an argument being made with Saddam, considering the treatment of the Kurds. But Libya post Gaddafi has had more extrajudicial killings than even under the bloodiest parts of his reign. In part by collapse of the new government allowing terrorists to run rampant, but also in part because the new government before the collapse was partially staffed by the bloodthirsty lunatics he was repressing.

One of the first actions of the new Libyan government was to instate the death penalty for blasphemy. Which was then used on anyone from political opposition to women daring to seek education. The government collapsed before any sentences could be carried out, but that's intent to apply repression on a vastly broader scale than Gaddafi cared to.