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a third option is that balaji already owns tons of bitcoin, and plans on manipulating the btc value just enough to largely compensate for the 1 million $, thus making money.

Just buying 37 BTC anonymously won't have the same effect on the btc price.

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I assume all these high-profile crypto people have 10's of millions in crypto. Maybe I'm wrong. But if that's the case creating excitement around BTC seems like a good way to increase his portfolio value and $1M is really just marketing spend.

Marketing spend is a funny way of saying market manipulation.

this seems the most rational. BTC is up 15% in the last 5 days. Who knows how much effect his publicity stunt is having on the price but assuming he has a large percentage of his liquid assets in bitcoin. The pump may end up making him more money than the million he puts into escrow.

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