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It sounds more like they hope they won't have to fire more people (probably so they can still achieve their goals), but not agreeing to it ensures there is government support for an employee in case of a layoff (guaranteed severance, unemployment benefits, pension fund contributions etc).

Depending on the market and your personal circumstances, you just need to put ~3 outcomes on paper and decide what's best for your family and you: you agree to a paycut, you don't agree and don't get fired, or you don't agree and you get let go.

This is the case. There is a safety net with refusing to sign so it's a choice between betting on the company or winging it and hope they keep to their end of the law. If they fire me for not agreeing there is a body that handles such cases, since that's effectively unfair dismissal and you get paid out N months too.

Fortunately I am not employed at-will but I do honestly think that answer is genuine.

Except the CEO, they keep the bonus lmao

Leadership took a 15% pay cut a bit before ours was announced. They said it was to avoid impacting employees but then they did anyway, so my confidence in their promises is quite low.