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Comment by meltyness | Hacker News Reader

Shockingly, it's drug overdoses.

Apparently copious unfulfilling underpaid labor may lead to escapism. Simultaneously we're exporting inflation to our southern neighbors who have a robust, lucrative industry which may lead to conditions favoring that fate.

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> Shockingly, it's drug overdoses.

Yeah, no. Drug overdoses account for ~100k of the annual 3.4 million deaths. That's less than 3%.

Its less than 3% of total deaths, but when they happen is important. They do, in fact, account for the falling life expectancy.

> They do, in fact, account for the falling life expectancy.

Talk is cheap. Show me the maths.

People 44 and under accounted for 62% of opioid overdose deaths in 2020.

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/opioid-overdose-de...

The original claim was that lowered life expectancy was due to drug overdoses. Drug overdoses account for only 3% of all deaths. How much does the fact that 62% of them were under 44 move the needle?

In 2020, life expectancy was 77 years; an increase of 1% of the total number (before the increase) of deaths occurring at 44 (33 years below expectancy reduces life expectancy by 0.327-ish years on its own.

20k deaths of 70 year olds will have a lot less impact on life expectancy than the same number of deaths in 40 year olds. It's basic arithmetic.

Do you not understand how life expectancy is calculated?

Again, only 3% of all deaths are from overdoses. If you assume that all of them lived to 77 instead of 44, that would make a difference of about 1 year in total life expectancy.

That's like 20% of the difference in life expectancy with Italy already (drug related deaths in Italy are orders of magnitude less, 300 per year).

> If you assume that all of them lived to 77 instead of 44,

44 or under, not 44.

Shockingly, glorification of drug use (of all kinds; sugars and attention and plants alike) in all forms of media (which is itself prevalent and pervasive for most) along with similar glorification of rebellion against "normal" creates a maelstrom of influence on people of all ages, beliefs, and origins.

neither of those things seem to cause mortality though, particularly not this increase in it, so not really pertinent to the discussion here

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