We've also known about the global warming problem in great detail for well over 50 years at this point. Since then we haven't figured it out but made it worse -- most of our cumulative emissions have happened in just the last 50 years. Why do people still think we can figure this out in a matter of decades without having to drastically change our fossil fuel habits?
Because people haven't come to terms with the fact that humans are not Children of God nor disembodied Cartesian rational calculators, but actually a loquacious and smartish hominid, designed by selection for small group interaction. There is nothing to suggest this species is capable of planet-level cooperation towards a communally-decided end.
Add to that the fact that path-dependent history has placed that species today in a situation where it's organised into huge 17thC mutually-hostile groups ("States"), incapable of anything more than opportunistic cooperation because of their religious and anachronistic founding concept ("sovereignty"). Most people have no idea that this contingent organisation is not the natural and inevitable state of the world, so aren't open to the possibility that it dooms them to sclerotic inability to face today's challenges.
Absolutely. In fact there is plenty to suggest to me that this species is completely incapable of that level of cooperation.
Every day we cooperate in an intricate dance with people all over the world, from different ideologies and legal systems, to operate our supply chains and information networks.
All we need is for the green option to be in everyone’s self-interest and the system will rapidly self-optimize.
We’re already getting there with green laws being globally popular, carbon taxes, and clean tech getting cheaper.
I also think the very concept of 'self-interest' is incoherent (as is 'national interest'), but again that's too large a topic for an HN comment.
For instance, I'm using this device for fun and profit and it was made by actual communists on the other side of the planet.
People until recently have not thought of the ecology as being in their personal interest in a direct and concrete way, only a vague and diffused good. Tragedy of the commons and all that.
But that's changed because now being green can be cheaper (carbon tax, cheap solar panels, other tech progress) and cool.
The market deals with all long-term significant problems this way - leave it until it's urgent, then absolutely smash it. This isn't perfect but it's probably the only way to get 8 billion decision-makers to coordinate on anything.
Anyway, 'arguments' (especially those of economists - the theologians of our era, whose intellectual fairy-castles will in my view come to be seen as equally empty) are irrelevant. Rationalism lost (a historical reality economists never grappled with). Empirical reality is all. Time will tell.
I'm just going to put it out there - our progeny is going to hate our guts.
Then again, maybe afterward humanity will hold us up as an example for what not to do, how not to solve global problems. They'll be able to use history to quickly and effectively shut down the naysayers. Of course that's assuming they bother to learn anything from history...I mean we sure as hell haven't!
But, I've heard that studies show that younger generations are more concerned about the environment. Both in that they are showing an interest in the subject at younger ages and they are more likely than older generations to acknowledge it as an issue that affects them.
This suggests that our children may not only be better equipped to handle these issues than we are (assuming we continue to advance science and technology without major catastrophe in the meanwhile), but will be more interested in pursuing these problems both personally and professionally and, in the worst case, more willing to make the necessary sacrifices to see actual change.
While I certainly hope we can do more and that I can have some confidence my children will actually be better off than myself, changing the way the world thinks is a very slow and difficult thing to do. It may be the case the best we can accomplish is to hold it together the best we can while teaching our children to care about the world around them, and, when the time comes, step aside to let them solve these problems.
Today's adults are talking about it, but not doing enough about it. But for many of them it only became a problem after decades of not really hearing or caring about it. They have decades of experience not worrying about it and not seeing any consequences of it.
Today's kids have been hearing about it for most or all their lives. They'll grow up seeing more evidence of what's happening and how it will impact them. They won't know a world that's not talking about it.
Is that a guarantee they'll do something about it? Of course not.