I feel like no less than 10 years if the singularity doesn't kick in before that. Hardware and energy isn't progressing as fast as we'd like, and that is the main bottleneck. As in, imagine a world where we actually had the same computing power required to train (not run) GPT-4 in 1s in a phone? That kind of world is way beyond AGI and the cure of cancer IMO. Which is great, because it gives us a very objective goal to achieve these things. Sadly, I don't think we're nowhere near that. What was even the total energy consumption of GPT-4 training? Very hard to imagine computers will get that much better anytime soon. IIRC we have some kind of data that the a smartphone today has the power of the best supercomputer... of 30 years ago, right? Don't remember the source, sadly.