That's not up you, it's up to your adversary.
> How much does rotating credentials reduce risk? Should I rotate once a year? Once a month?
As frequently as possible. Signal for example uses ephemeral keys for each message.
> Rotating every day would be even more secure, right? But how much more? I think not very much.
Stop guessing and use empirical evidence to support your reasoning.
> The risk is that I don’t know if I’m compromised. But I think that risk is less than the errors involved in rotating keys according to some arbitrary schedule.
It's arbitrary because you are making a strawman argument to support a foregone conclusion.