If the outfall from a 7-sigma is disastrous, you have to try to prevent it, because it WILL happen eventually given enough goes.
If the outfall from a 7-sigma is disastrous, you have to try to prevent it, because it WILL happen eventually given enough goes.
The easiest way to get something that's not actually normal in the typical central limit theorem construction is to have the variables be just slightly not independent. Which becomes obvious in retrospect after you start realizing the dependence and shit hits the fan.
Also natural distribution assumes you don’t have someone trying to game the extremes to make money. If being seven feet tall resulted in billions we’d have people researching how to grow taller people.
You can see stuff like this in distributions of tax returns - many people will be unexpectedly clustered right below certain cut-off amounts.
I'm not a statistician, but I don't think that's how that works. Given enough events, the likelihood of something happening goes up, but it never becomes a certainty.
Likewise when the statistical 100 year statistical storm happens, the next one is not 100 years away. It could happen the following week without violating the underlying statistics. (Of course if a 100 year storm keeps happening year after year, then the threshold for what is likely to happen once in a hundred years probably needs to be revised.)