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Comment by Dalewyn | Hacker News Reader

There's no "would" about it, it is happening if the 2030 all-EV timetable is kept to. Other than Tesla, western (that includes Japan and South Korea) car makers stand to lose everything vice versa China who stand to gain everything with the current politics.

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Indeed, companies like VW, BMW, Mercedes, Ford, GM, Hyundai/KIA, Nissan, Honda etc are going to lose everything compared to a new entrant which doesn't have a single vehicle on sale in the markets where those brands have long been established players. They must be quaking in their boots. /s

The 2030 timetable is not going to be met by any single manufacturer, if it is going to be met to begin with. I suspect that it is going to be pushed backwards bit by bit as reality sets in: that it always was too ambitious a target to realistically achieve. And if they stick to it, which I would find very brave it will simply mean that the price of personal transportation will skyrocket and that older non BEVs will have to hang around a little longer.

There is so much that has to work for an all electric transition for every new vehicle sold in the next 7 years to be successful that I wouldn't bet on it. I think of it more as a goal to strive for than something that is realistically achievable, but of course I hope that I'll be wrong on this. Time will tell.

China added production capacity for almost 4million EV's last year. (from 16% to 30% of 26 million). Given that Europe buys 12 million cars per year, hitting that goal would be straightforward for China.

You need to look at the size of the internal market first. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that I think that it is very unlikely that we'll see any of those here in numbers that would significantly impact the current division between US/Europe/Japan/Korea.

Also keep in mind that whatever goals have been set that Europe at a minimum (but probably also other territories) are going to want to have a very large slice of the labor/manufacturing pie. If that isn't on offer then the tariffs will likely kill the market to protect local competitors, of which there are plenty.

I don't think production capacity is one of the main reasons for not reaching the goal, rather it will be Lithium availability and charging infrastructure.

re: nokia vs apple

Yes, that happened. But in a way it proves my point: if a local manufacturer competes on quality, branding and user experience they can wipe out an outsider in a very short time. The perception of Chinese brands; Polestar excepted for the moment; is not such that people are going to pick those over the brands that have been active here for longer than people have been alive.

Apple was a well known brand name before Nokia was, and that is in part why it succeeded.

>The 2030 timetable is not going to be met by any single manufacturer, if it is going to be met to begin with. I suspect that it is going to be pushed backwards bit by bit as reality sets in: that it always was too ambitious a target to realistically achieve.

The car industry, specifically the American market, already went through the "nobody can do tha-- wait what" phase once upon a time: California was poised to enact then-considered-ridiculous emissions regulations, American car makers all complained it was impossible to satisfy and California was on the verge of shelving them when Japanese car makers (read: Honda) came in to show it can be done.

The rest is history: Japan proceeded to murder and dominate the American car market, and soon the world.

The moral to take away from that is that so long as even one manufacturer can demonstrate the feasibility of the timetable, they can and will become the new king and kingmaker of the car industry.

I'm in fact in complete agreement with you that the 2030 timetable is ridiculous and it'll probably be pushed back and back with excuses, but history has proven itself to be amusing at times.

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