Interesting that it's suddenly become so "controversial" to suggest circumspection with respect to this subject...
This might not be insightful from your perspective, because you've thought about it before, but it needs to be said. Just like a NO DIVING sign in the shallow end, most people already know, but some people who don't know might not know if it isn't stated.
I don't see, why ChatGPT changed that, I only tried it a little bit so far, but it doesn't usually give you a ready program, right? It gives you snippets, that might work, or not, but in my case required understanding of the domain. So I could adopt the scripts to my need, but I doubt a beginner could. At least not for anything non trivial. Also those beginners can ask a million stupid questions to the AI that just patiently answers. So yes, those answers can be wrong, but that can happen in a forum as well and even in university occasionally I was taught some BS.
So yes, ChatGPT changes the game a bit, but not that drastic. If you want to become a professional programmer, you still have to get your hands dirty and grind away the basics. But you cannot skip certain things, or you never manage to get even a mid sized project running performant and stable.
And if necessary, it would be probably trivial to weed out "programmers" that aren't really programmers by asking them some questions directly.
I agree with your assertion that non-trivial things will weed out "programmers", I just think that ChatGPT will get people further and that definition of "non-trivial" will shift a bit - possibly far enough people will have an easier time leaking their API keys through Frankenstein apps they post online.