Russian oil exports back above pre-Ukraine war levels as India and China buy 90% | Hacker News Reader

Russian oil exports back above pre-Ukraine war levels as India and China buy 90%

independent.co.uk

29 pointsdonutloop9 comments

> While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-on-year.

This should be the lede of the article and indicates that sanctions are working better than Western countries could have imagined.

The last thing Western countries would have wanted is Russian oil not being sold at all. That would effectively constitute a significant drop in supply which would translate to a massive increase in energy costs adding to the high inflation they’re facing already.

This way oil supply is similar, which doesn’t lead to increasing oil prices, and Russia is getting far fewer dollars than it would have otherwise. And I’ve seen good analyses indicating that Russia is probably selling its oil at a loss right now.

Article based on Q1 data when Urals was ~40. Urals to trading at 67 now (above cap), 10 days after OPEC+ cuts. Part of it is also took some time for systems/shadow fleet to circumvent cap. RU oil price looks where it should be relative to OPEC price movement pre cap and decrease in global crude price. Unless something else changes, RU probably down single digit % of revenue backed stopped by increased production. Meanwhile EU as whole still has to overpay for Brent/OPEC/transhipped RU oil by ~20%. Almost everyone benefits except EU/RU losing, but arguablly EU losing relatively more right now. Biggest winner non RU producers, and Asia whose now getting discount energy instead of previously paying premium compared to EU.

The discount that China and India get compared to spot price for being the only customers must be substantial, though undisclosed, as far as I know.

China and India are winning here, while Russia is forced to accept low prices.

Russia is also winning.

If you define "winning" flexibly enough...

If you sell oil at a price too low to recoup the investments in the production facilities, but high enough to bring in hard currency at a time when you really need hard currency, is that winning?

As far as I know their economy actually improved post war. Western Countries were undervaluing their resources. Getting out of a trade system seems to be an economic benefit to them, the same way getting out of colonialism would be to an African country. I just don't understand the stick approach. When probably a carrot would have worked better. Shame a deal could not be made.

What are some of the benefits Russian citizens are enjoying now?

It's reasonable to assume that the Asian Market will be dominant going forward. So switching early to it should pay off. Should they win this war, they can boast about keeping their culture intact, distinct identity, and being free of US influence. They might gain territory and warm water ports too.

And Germans and Americans are waiting for war fatigue to catch on to start pumping billions into Russian economy and joint companies with Putin. Traitors.

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