>If there is any danger here, it is that the forthcoming debate in Washington over the debt ceiling somehow results in a US default

This, I do not understand why the GOP goes nuts over the debt limit. If they blow it this year, inflation worries we have now will seem quaint.

If China was not gaming their currency and had a real open economy, that would be a possible alternative. But with Xi in power, it will never happen. EUR should have been in a position to ascend, but Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and later on UK stopped that in its tracks. No trust there with the Euro right now.