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I think in the ones that researched that, they could claim people become more efficient.

But that's not the same as reducing headcount.

Reducing headcount is a pretty common outcome of increasing efficiency tho. It's why productivity is far higher today than 30 years ago but wages have decreased. Those increases in efficiency means fewer people are required to do a job which means the market for said job becomes more competitive.

I meant: 10 % more efficient != 10% less headcount

Perhaps it's 1-2% in a large org and 0% an a small org.

But if everyone has too much work all the time, it won't make much difference either.

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