The problem of VR goes beyond hardware innovation: most people don’t want to completely shut themselves off from the world for hours on end.
So I find it totally plausible that a huge amount of people would spend large amounts of time in a more immersive virtual world, provided it wasn’t clunky and caused headaches.
I, too, know people who met their future spouse online. However, after meeting online, they invariably meet in person before getting married, and then live together after getting married. Even the most plugged-in exemplars of the metaverse can't escape from the desire to interact outside of it.
So while I agree with your point overall, I think here on HN we're too quick to dismiss people's personal stories.
I, on the other hand, know nobody that uses virtual worlds. I find it plausible that a tiny amount of people would spend large amounts of time in a more immersive virtual world. I find it completely implausible that a huge amount of people would.
But people already do.
Email, Facebook, twitter, messaging, slack, all of it, is by no means real, human interaction. It is a step away from that.
Some even say that this type of interaction is so fake, so filled with disinformation, and algorithmic monkeying, that it is toxic poison.
Yet people will be with friends at a restaurant, or hanging out, and so addicted, so unable to stop, that they are constantly be staring at their screen instead of interacting in person!
People cannot help themselves, and people cannot resist addictive platforms.
So sadly, Zuck probably has a good idea. He's probably a bit early, but you can be sure when VR takes a Musk implant, and a simple pair of glasses for full immersion, people will be in VR while having lunch with you.
I'd extend that to, "Virtual reality is where you are when you're not present in the here-and-now." That encompasses all forms of media, entertainment, and communication with people who aren't in the room with you. The idea that it has anything to do with goggles, 3D graphics, avatars, or Facebook is something some people made up.
For all the hype around Metaverse and Zuckerberg wanting 1 billion people in VR, there has been surprisingly little effort in finding out what those people would actual do when they have the headset on.
True. However, the internet was around for 20+ years, before profit entered. Radio took decades, TV too. These things take time.
there are 2.5 billion adult gamers in the world. A good percentage of that are partaking in games that easily qualify as virtual worlds.
no personal anecdote needed, huge amounts of people are already spending time in places that qualify as virtual worlds.
Our interfaces are clunky, and you can shift 'virtual world' around to mean something else, but it feels evident to me that this isn't an uncommon pastime/desire among people.
I am one of those "adult gamers". I even occasionally play VR games with an Oculus Quest. The thought of living substantially more portions of my life "in the metaverse" is pretty much the definition of dystopia for me. I've seen Wall-E, and I'll pass, thanks.
I don't think casually playing a mobile game every once in a while translates to going full VR. The amount of gamers that care enough about the medium to buy a console or gaming PC is only around 500 million or so.
VR is fun, but has serious limitations. A nice way to take a walk on the rings of Saturn, but no way in hell am I going to trust it with my privacy. And it's totally overkill for something like scrolling cat-meme videos or wishing someone happy birthday via social media.
Plus the Index is pretty good but it still gives me headaches and dizziness after extended periods.
I absolutely think there is more to come with VR, but it's only after there is already a flourishing ecosystem that social media will find its place there, not before.
But I am looking forward to Quest 3. Because I really miss the part of completely shutting off from my surroundings and being transported elsewhere. And really enjoyed random conversations in Table Tennis game and in their VR World thing.
Only after selling it, I realized how much those few minutes in it were worth.
EDIT: Now I think VR/meta is correct long term move.
I think the Meta beta is correct long term. It might be too early right now but I think long term, it's the correct move
In the future, if everything you care about is in VR, then not being in VR would be shutting yourself off from the world, the same as not using the internet is shutting oneself off from the world today (for some of us).
Think about any time you've been on a bus, train or plane -- most people on board are using their phones or tablets. I suspect within this decade it's common for those devices to be supplanted by AR/VR headsets.
Would Better Call Saul be a better story in VR?
One of the things that makes shows and movies good is tight editing and focus; a VR system where I can look around is the antithesis of that.
Same way I feel about open world games like GTA V vs. something like Bioshock which is highly linear but also highly directed.
But FWIW I'm totally with you about the airplane headset, never have I wanted to be somewhere else then when I'm on a plane...
Isn't that the way it is now? Used to be, you'd all get together at the town hall, to discuss problems with the city.
Now people use twitter and Facebook, and community involvement is at an all time low.
We're already in VR version 1. Nothing online is "real"!
In VR2 people will still go for walks in the park, but just as now, where everone is walking and staring at their phone, people will be in VR2 while walking their dog.
To be fair Meta's VR headsets are pretty heavy, which is also bad for the neck, but evolutional pressure will bring the futures headsets' weight down, as ergonomics is on a critical path for these devices adoption.
Ten years in I def feel like I've cut myself off from the world in a significant way. I feel like my Boomer parents now, seeing local events advertised in traditional media instead of on Facebook or in some feed.
The _major_ upside is that I am pretty out of the loop with so much meme-based misinformation and influence. It's crazy to see what people are consuming daily.
I just really hope that VR doesn't go the same way. The 90s cyberpunk vision was you'd jack into this wild west and have access to everything. The current reality is that you're just getting another Marc Zuckerberg-esque curated reality. Thanks but no thanks.
To be fair it's not that I'm doubting VR in general just Facebook's vision (or lack of one) of what the Metaverse is supposed to be.
VR belongs in the 80s
Quest2 has been adding similar functionality over the last year, though the image quality of the pass-through still leaves a lot to be desired, but that can be fixed in future headsets.
Depths sensors will also make they way into headsets sooner or later and allow much more flexible integration between real world and virtual objects. Hololens could do that years ago, but the VR space still needs to do some catch up.
[1] https://www.uploadvr.com/mirage-solo-is-getting-pass-through...
Meta's other problem is that while it owns an overwhelming share of VR headsets thanks to subsidies, it is a pitiful also-ran in services with Horizon compared to the real leaders, Fortnite and Minecraft.
while quest 2 has solved some problems, there are still hurdles to usability. but these hurdles aren't inherent to VR.