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Comment by Rafert | Hacker News Reader

Things changed quite a bit since this quote from February 17:

> “There’s no cuts coming for us,” Harley Finkelstein told The Canadian Press. “We’re in a really good place.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/9494197/shopify-outlook-no-layoff...

In my observation absolute statements about no layoffs are a strong indication of future layoffs in this economy. It's impossible to be certain in this economy so giving an absolute statement is basically a lie. Someone who is so brazen about lying to/deceiving their employees will have no qualms with doing layoffs. On the other hand someone who uses more careful language even if it costs them in the short term is someone who will have more qualms about layoffs.

In sports this is the "absolute vote of confidence"

Once a coach has to say "[player] has my absolute confidence in their success," you know the player is ~2 weeks from being benched.

I agree, but I think the sports analogy is even more on point when it comes to sports management giving a vote of confidence to coaches. You only ever have to say anything like that when there are questions.

Coaches and players... they talk about each other a lot.

I've heard it called the Kiss of Death when general managers or owners publicly say similar things about their coaches.

If you have to ask the question ...

I think this is actually a more astute analogy than you realize, because the only reason a coach would be asked that question in the first place is because there are questions about the player’s ability to perform—-as the sibling comment here notes.

Similarly, you don’t ask tech companies if they’re doing layoffs when the sector is booming.

That the question is even asked probably shoots the probability of benching/layoffs up to some ridiculous amount to begin with.

In sports or in Irish politics were the Taoiseach might have to state he has "full confidence" of whatever individual in his administration when there are "irregularities" that have come to light.

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=taoiseach%20has%20full...

Might be true in other countries but I'm old enough to see this pattern play out a few times.

"Every banker knows that if he has to prove he is worthy of credit, in fact his credit is gone." -- Walter Bagehot

Or the Roman: You wouldn't be on trial if you were innocent.

Didn’t know this had to look it up. This is one of the reasons why I’m on HN. TIL as a service.

When a young child starts telling you they’re not tired, it’s definitely bedtime.

"Read my lips. No new taxes". New taxes pass 2 years later.

The real question is why are we OK with this outright dishonest behavior?

> It's impossible to be certain in this economy so giving an absolute statement is basically a lie

Or a sign of the kind of delusional optimism that leads to over-hiring.

I'm not sure if it's a flat out lie or if someone just tries to take responsibility they dont' have, or a promise they can't live up to.

I mean, is there another part of that quote? Anytime I've been put on the spot for these types of statements it's always '...at this time.' Nothing in business is static. When the facts change the business has to change.

Happens all the time. I remember Figma founder saying they will never be acquired and then boom.

It is a meme at this point.

I'm good at everything that I'm good at, every time that it works out!

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