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htss2013

Why would you assume the market efficiently adjusts for things like fines? Have you seen the stock market lately? There is at best a loose correlation between business reality and stock prices.

Why would there be a 1 to 1 relationship between the price of stocks and reality, when most investing is blind passive investing that ignores reality by design?

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If you are sure stocks are over or under priced then go mortgage your house and trade your financial security against the market and win.

You can't predict when the market will stop behaving stupidly. Betting against stupid is often considered a bad idea.

It doesn't really matter that much if he thinks or knows a stock is under or over valued if he also expects that bad valuation to be maintained for any significant length of time.

Stock prices are not rational and there is no consistent way to calculate the value of a company. An expensive media campaign that accomplishes nothing related to their business offerings and may even lose the company significant amounts of money can end up raising a stock price. And you also don't have unlimited time to try and wait out stocks which also have so many other random factors being thrown in over the years.

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