Conclusion: there no way to know what is inside a head of aging autocrat.
Plenty of experts have been calling it for a decade now... EU/US influence has been slowly creeping east for 30 years. Russia had no other options really - as soon as a pro-west leader was elected to Ukraine, war was inevitable.
And the same will happen in Belarus when the leadership changes there too.
You see children's playgrounds that have a big sign saying 'Proudly sponsored by the USA development fund", or "This bus route is made possible by the EU funding.".
Why would the USA be using US taxpayer money to build children's playgrounds in Azerbaijan?
It's all about a long term battle for hearts and minds... Be the 'good guys' to a 5 year old child now, and in 30 years that child is a voter and you can have influence over the whole country.
Pretty smart moves... But I can see how Russia isn't happy about it.
The whole premise “someone funded a playground in my neighbor’s backyard, I have no other options. Bomb them NOW!” is beyond ridiculous.
They could also fund our playgrounds, if it’s as effective, as you claim. In any case that would be muuuuuch cheaper than starting a war with hundreds of thousands dying, sanctions and all that.
I’m missing the explanation for how this justifies an extremely destructive invasion and war.
They do everything in their power to make you believe that is was inevitable to divert the blame.
Same with Taiwan. It is a choice for China to make - to invade or not.
But yes. US influence snuck up on Russia and tricked those countries into being scared of it. Its all so clear now...