I would say that we are really saying the same thing. I did intend to imply “short term predictions”.

However I feel that these LLMs are not like the internet or the release of the iPhone. We’ve gone in a very short time from LLMs in the lab to ChatGPT to passing the bar exam.

Considering the rate of research that’s being published and the fact that what we see today is generally at least many months behind the state of the art, I don’t feel that we can even have any certainty about the next 6 months.