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I used to work at Render, and I said often "Cloudflare is the iceberg - only ten percent of it is above the water and it's going to tear a big chunk out of the [PaaS] boat".

Over time it seems more and more confirmable as a hypothesis.

True. I was actually looking at Render a while back to host my app. The Render Disks were the one feature I was most interested in, as no other PaaS provider I was aware of provided persistent disk storage. The prices were a bit too much for a side-project though, and with no managed MongoDB, I ultimately made the app not require the disk storage and moved to Railway.

The question is how the smart people at AWS who realized this too, will prevent them from rising to the top.

Yes it will be better than AWS.