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You will, once the lack of driver is priced in.

Why wait? Uber succeeded by subsidizing the cost of rides until they had completely crowded out taxis for good

But will the upfront cost of creating the technology offset this for a long while?

May be not for the companies that have pioneered the technology, but for ones that go in their footsteps. As it often happens with innovation.

I think so, because the market is enormous. I can see these (mostly big) companies be patient while they establish market share.