In your rather long post, you did not mention the fact that Russia refuses to sell oil to any country which applies the price cap. I wonder, is this really not relevant for your analysis?
In fact, Russia had to reduce their output because they refuse to sell it to countries that participate in the price cap and there isn't enough demand otherwise (also most of their flow goes west through the now mostly idle pipelines to Europe - It's MUCH harder to move oil east or south because the infrastructure in that direction isn't big enough to handle such a surge). So Russia's losing even MORE profits by refusing to sell to them. AND they still have to maintain the now idle pipelines to the West or else they'll break down over time and become useless.
This kind of response is incredibly rude.
So it looks like their production has since gone up, a lot (after dropping mid last year). Profits are still down because nobody's paying full price.
https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/31/russian-oil-exports-are-...
>> The revenue is still down 43% from a year ago, the IEA said, as Russia is forced to sell its barrels to a more limited pool of customers who can negotiate greater discounts.
>> Still, sanctions have made a significant dent in Russia’s coffers. Last week, the government said declining energy revenues had contributed to a budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles ($29 billion) in the first three months of this year. Its overall income plunged nearly 21% compared with the same period in 2022, Reuters reported.
So is this article a lie or not? its your own source, you seem to want to very selectively quote it.
No it's not, the budget deficit information comes from Russia itself.
And even these figures are artificially pumped by factors like the previously mentioned "trade in local currencies". India pays for oil in rupees, which are piling up in Indian banks because there is no use for them. Russia has no comparable demand for Indian goods, can't exhange rupees for other currencies, can't pay to third countries in rupees, and is unwilling to invest that money in India. Oil flows to India, nothing comes back.
If this is how Russia "successfully skirts western sanctions", then may it continue for a long time.
The Russians have a deficit of over 40 billion dollars, it doesn't look super rosy.
Additionally they are losing a lot of people in the war and having countries cancel military equipment orders.