Hacker News Reader

Comment by wustangdan | Hacker News Reader

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

From Jan 2019 to now we've had 17.4% inflation. Your purchasing power of the money in your bank account has been reduced. How have other assets faired in that time?

> Objection, Your Honor. Assumes facts not in evidence.

Okay longer timeline, if you held dollars in your savings account from Jan 2009 to now (during ZIRP) you've lost 30.5% of your purchasing power. How has the SP500 or houses fared in that time (even ignoring crypto)?

If losing 30% of your purchasing power is no consequence to you, please let me have a not much of consequence portion of your salary, thanks.

View on HN

> if you held dollars in your savings account from Jan 2009 to now...

... I would be a doofus. That's where my emergency fund goes, but that's it.

> From Jan 2019 to now we've had 17.4% inflation. Your purchasing power of the money in your bank account has been reduced. How have other assets faired in that time?

My home value has tripled, and the S&P500 has gone dramatically up. Series I savings bonds are also a useful option if I'm really all that worried about the stuff in savings, as their interest rate is pegged to inflation numbers.

If we're going to carefully pick dates to make our arguments ("Jan 2019 to now" having had some... outlier stuff going on, after all) I'm gonna ask how hedging with crypto starting in April or October of 2021 would've gone. Remind me the purchasing power of a $64k Bitcoin today?

Well sorry but you confused me as my main issue was with USD and I believed you thought that USD had "not all that much of consequence" happening to its value. But it seems we are mostly in agreement.

I'm happy you have a home and own some SP500 to offset USD destruction. Not everyone is so fortunate to have access to those markets. I would suggest you look into crypto as part of your hedge against bad USG behavior because it has some nice properties that could uncorrelate it with those assets if things get nasty (90% tax rates, etc).

> if you held dollars in your savings account from Jan 2009 to now (during ZIRP) you've lost 30.5% of your purchasing power

One, obviously a policy failure. Two, don’t do this. Bank deposit dollars are optimised for transacting, not long-term value transport. For that, use Treasuries (including inflation-protected ones). It’s not the Falcon 9’s fault that it makes for a bad hammer.

Well I mean the recent bank failures showed the issue with treasuries, but sure it seems we agree more than disagree. You agree that holding USD is failure for long term value or even short term (3 year) value transport.

My argument is that assets and crypto is needed to hedge the potential incoming USD destruction. And that because crypto has some nice properties that houses and the SP500 don't, it has a legitimate reason to be a part (even if small) of your hedge.

I don't buy the "Crypto is a complete scam" argument at all.

> I mean the recent bank failures showed the issue with treasuries

No depositors lost money. And like, yeah, Treasuries go up and down in price; it's dumb our regulations pretended otherwise. Particularly given the problem was fixed by Basel III.

> assets and crypto is needed to hedge the potential incoming USD destruction

This is gold buggery. Which means gold does a fine enough job.

> don't buy the "Crypto is a complete scam" argument at all

I don't, at least not with certainty. But there is certainty around the prevalence of fraud. That needs to be regulated, which means crypto needs to be taxed to pay for that regulation. Gold bugs are a famously-profitable client group for finance; crypto is the same. Let's put them on the same level.

Gold and crypto are already taxed the same and on the same level (capital gains). Go ahead and regulate fraud how is crypto packets flowing preventing you? The blockchain is more open and transparent than the banking system. Don't you wish you could see JP Morgans or the Pentagons books laid bare like the blockchain?

> This is gold buggery. Which means gold does a fine enough job.

It's really expensive to secure my own gold. I can't easily verify my own gold. I can't easily send my goal in under a minute to help my friends in Venezuela who's government has inflated his money supply by 5,000% and confiscate most of what sent physically or through the banking system. The USG also has a precedent for confiscating everyones gold. I can't take gold with me across a border in an undetectable manner. Sorry but gold is not doing a fine enough job for me and I'd like something a little more advanced and modern.

I understand for us privileged westerners (assumption about you on my part) that this all this seems a little silly, but for my family and friends in situations where their government is behaving really badly, this is serious. And "buy T bills or a house or the sp500" are not the solutions you think they are.

And I hope it doesn't come to the US but it seems a little silly if you are rich enough to not hedge against that possibility, especially given the US financial competency these last two decades.

> Gold and crypto are already taxed the same and on the same level (capital gains)...It's really expensive to secure my own gold

Gold bugs pay for their own security. Crypto outsources investigation, enforcement and regulation onto the public.

> how is crypto packets flowing preventing you

My taxes pay for investigation and enforcement.

> Don't you wish you could see JP Morgans or the Pentagons books laid bare like the blockchain?

No? J.P. Morgan is audited. Almost nobody dives into their various filings with the SEC, FDIC, Fed, and every state banking and securities regulator. As for the Pentagon, absolutely not–that's a huge national security hole.

> for us privileged westerners (assumption about you on my part) that this all this seems a little silly, but for my family and friends in situations where their government is behaving really badly, this is serious

I don't think it's silly. I just don't think it should be subsidized by us.

> it doesn't come to the US but it seems a little silly if you are rich enough to not hedge against that possibility

It's a common pass-time for the rich. Crypto, like gold buggery, is aimed at soothing an emotional need to hedge. The fact that those with most to lose play by a different playbook should speak for itself.

Good dialogue so far but you've lost me with this.

When I buy a big vault, extra door locks, a pitbull, and a gun to protect the gold I store at home to go full gold buggery, am I paying for the investigation, enforcement, and regulation of gold? This is what I mean by its expensive to secure my own gold.

When I store gold at a business that specializes in such services, am I paying for the investigation, enforcement, and regulation of gold?

If yes for either of these, how am I not paying for that same investigation, enforcement, and regulation of crypto when buying a vault for my crypto or paying one of many such companies to hold it for me?

I don't really get what you are subsidizing that you don't also subsidize for pokemon cards, private equity, or any collectable.

Gold is exempt from sales tax in most US states so I really have no clue what you are on about.

Incase I've missed something, on behalf of all crypto users you have my full permission to stop subsidizing all USG employees trying to investigate, enforce, and regulate crypto.

> When I buy a big vault, extra door locks, a pitbull, and a gun to protect the gold I store at home to go full gold buggery, am I paying for the investigation, enforcement, and regulation of gold?

No, you’re paying to secure it. That minimises the fraud around gold.

> When I store gold at a business that specializes in such services, am I paying for the investigation, enforcement, and regulation of gold?

Id.

> don't really get what you are subsidizing that you don't also subsidize for pokemon cards, private equity, or any collectable

Private equity is subject to some reporting standards under the ‘40 Act because it is a haven for fraudsters. Pokémon cards are not similarly problematic so they’re not. Crypto, like securities and gambling, has proven itself a haven for fraud.

I don’t demonise crypto. But we need visibility, laws and enforcement, as well as a stream of revenue to pay for it.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com