Hacker News Reader

Comment by _kbh_ | Hacker News Reader

> https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports...

>> The revenue is still down 43% from a year ago, the IEA said, as Russia is forced to sell its barrels to a more limited pool of customers who can negotiate greater discounts.

>> Still, sanctions have made a significant dent in Russia’s coffers. Last week, the government said declining energy revenues had contributed to a budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles ($29 billion) in the first three months of this year. Its overall income plunged nearly 21% compared with the same period in 2022, Reuters reported.

So is this article a lie or not? its your own source, you seem to want to very selectively quote it.

View on HN

Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant.

> Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant.

No it's not, the budget deficit information comes from Russia itself.

You're making a conjecture between two separate things. The statement regarding revenue being down 43% is not related to the deficit statement from Russia.

It's all a part of the same picture. Details and figures may vary a little based on which periods are used for reference, but the overall story remains the same. As of April, according to RU FinMin, income from oil&gas is down -52% YoY, expenditure up +26%, deficit at 30%. In a departure from the usual dry and humorless style of official press releases, they describe outlook as positive.

And even these figures are artificially pumped by factors like the previously mentioned "trade in local currencies". India pays for oil in rupees, which are piling up in Indian banks because there is no use for them. Russia has no comparable demand for Indian goods, can't exhange rupees for other currencies, can't pay to third countries in rupees, and is unwilling to invest that money in India. Oil flows to India, nothing comes back.

If this is how Russia "successfully skirts western sanctions", then may it continue for a long time.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens won't we. Seems to me that the economic problems that Europe is seeing right now are far worse than ones in Russia. So, if things continue the way they are European economy can't last a long time.

> I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens won't we. Seems to me that the economic problems that Europe is seeing right now are far worse than ones in Russia. So, if things continue the way they are European economy can't last a long time.

The Russians have a deficit of over 40 billion dollars, it doesn't look super rosy.

Additionally they are losing a lot of people in the war and having countries cancel military equipment orders.

Wait till you find out the deficit that US currently has.

It was $1400 billion for the year 2022

Reply on news.ycombinator.com