Nvidia Started in a Denny’s. Now It’s Worth $1T
wsj.com
wsj.com
Now it's worth a $1T.
* Please do not respond that you haven't been to a Denny's. It is a figure of speech called hyperbole.
His yelled "GPUUUUUUUU" in pain, and NVIDIA was born. Instead of a bill, the waiter brought them the prefilled incorporation documents and on the way out the door, the hostess handed them their seed round.
Some believe her to be an incarnation of Calafia, the ancient queen of California. Other suspect she is the personification of the pay-it-forward spirit of Silicon Valley. Others still believe she was a demon sent to destroy ATI or bring on the dark age of thinking machines.
We will never know.
I got to meet the fish Friar and the chip Monk.
I don't expect any single article to cover all the details of a company that just passed it's 30th year. And even then, they're missing bits of lore, like the CEO playing ping pong as a teenager (see https://engineering.stanford.edu/news/jen-hsun-huang-nvidia-...).
This WIRED article from 2002 gives an interesting snapshot of the same company and CEO:
Meet Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang, the man who plans to make the CPU obsolete.
https://www.wired.com/2002/07/nvidia/
- Quote: "What we can do in the next five years is going to blow your mind. In 10 years, we should be bigger than Intel." (which took until July 2020)
Then you can see how things evolved by the 2009/2010 timeframe, plus where they thought they might be headed: Mercury News interview: Jen-Hsun Huang, co-founder of Nvidia
https://www.mercurynews.com/2009/10/09/mercury-news-interview-jen-hsun-huang-co-founder-of-nvidia/
I’m Prepared for Adversity. I Waited Tables.
https://archive.is/2iUbfThat's great if Huang found a way to draw on his life experience. But he also just happened to have a master's degree from Stanford University and lived in Silicon Valley. Those are the sorts of characteristics that narrow down the possibilities quite a bit. Maybe he really did have a humble background. I don't know. But can we quit implying that's really what matters?
* When, why, and if, AI needs more training data than humans aside, even humans have received enough of it to have developed some common sense, but yet ...
There was a recent posting of a twitter thread by Peter Yang discussing the $Trillion valuation.
I added a link to a different thread where he pointed out Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave an inspiring commencement speech on May 28 where it was briefly mentioned the way Nvidia almost failed on 3 different occasions:
https://twitter.com/petergyang/status/1662831418882560000
At the time this did not appear to be appreciated at all.
Maybe this far into June there will be others who find his recollection worthwhile.
As an excerpt:
"Run don't walk. Either you're running for food, or you are running from being food:
1. Have the humility to confront failure and ask help.
2. Endure the pain needed to realize your dream.
3. Make sacrifices for your life's work."
> At the time, graphics cards were known by two letters, and Priem liked the sound of “NV.” Envy. They called their startup Nvision, which wasn’t a real word and didn’t hint at what they would do. It was perfect. [...] The only problem was that several companies already had similar names, including one that made environmentally friendly toilet paper. Priem reached for his Latin dictionary and found the word for envy. Invidia. He dropped the first letter [...]
Before the pinto.
...but of course it wouldn't matter to people who don't have the technical background.
Also, none of those other chip companies have broken US$ 1 trillion in market cap. That's a notable achievement.
To elevate a stock, a tulip, or a religious belief, to levels that far exceed any reason - that's just a part of being human.
And I also figured the crypto boom was a temporary unsustainable surge in the market for discrete gpus.
Now LLMs have taken up the crypto slack in terms of gpu demand. (I think? Is this what’s going on?) The question I have is whether there is any reason nvidia won’t be commoditized out of this market. Maybe someone who is smart at hardware can explain.
But it isn’t clear to me if Intel or Nvidia are further ahead when it comes to figuring that out.
Maybe hardware will morph into a more heterogenous mix than we have now, with many single-package cpu-gpu nodes working in parallel, instead of a few cpus orchestrating a gigantic sea of GPUs, but maybe not.
I'm more convinced that this is just one stage of the cycle. GPUs in consumer hardware weren't really a thing before the 90s. From the 90s to like 2013 graphics software (and it's ability to load hardware) improved rapidly. Since then it's kind of stagnated and a lot more of the focus has shifted to doing the same amount of rendering with less power/less heat/less space. Even if we do see a shift toward SoCs/APUs/whatever in consumer hardware over the next few years, I'd bet on some sort of paradigm shift to come along (fully raytraced rendering?) and swing the pendulum pack toward big discrete GPUs at some point again.
It's kind of amazing how perfect the timing was for LLM popularity (right around the time Ethereum moved to PoS, and the crypto market cooled down).
I’m not saying that makes Nvidia worth 1T with it’s expected profit.
It makes a lot of sense, it makes even more sense to have 90% of the public believe you're an idiot who spent 50 billion dollars on a lark because you're childish, which mean's they're less untrusting of your media ambition.