Apple Vision
stratechery.com
stratechery.com
If it seems like he’s gushing, he is. He’s speaking as someone who has seen lots of these devices and, in his view, this hardware and software outclasses anything else available.
If that bothers you but you push past it, I think you’ll find that whether you like this device or not, it could reflect or represent changes in how we incorporate technology in our lives that we might not yet fully appreciate.
This is how he writes. If you ever read him on a topic where you are an actual expert, you’ll probably never bother reading him again.
Maybe, but Marques Brownlee gushed about it as well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFvXuyITwBI), and he's not a person that pulls punches.
This is an extremely ambitious, qualitatively different device than anything that's come before.
I cannot argue with Apple’s ambition but as has been hashed over in these, and many other comments I am skeptical of the adoption story.
The [i]VP is a snazzy product without a market. It remains to be seen whether it will create the market in the way gpt3 did or if it will be another flop like glass, oculus, and every other attempt in the space.
what exactly is different? I see high quality display, foveated rengering, and controller-less control... anything else im missing?
I've never been able to get anything from the whole west coast "startup intelligence" blogosphere, and now it seems increasingly irrelevant and archaic.
Who are other people recommend instead of him then?
Can you give an example of an "sharp" "observation" he made?
Everyone and everyone's mother has already made the claim that VR is dystopian. Snow Crash was written in 1992. For literally decades before it's been even implemented, VR has been the quintessential symbol for the irony of technology both bringing us together while keeping us apart.
And to be clear, I'm not even criticizing the product. I think the Vision Pro could be very cool. I'm criticizing the idea that this blog said anything insightful.
But having said that, is "loneliness" the correct (or only) takeaway on that? I mean, there are people toying with the idea of uploading emails and documents of the deceased to an LLM so relatives can still "talk" to them.
I don't have a word for what that kind of world looks like.
I mean, I get it. I really, really do. But, man, is this healthy, really?
I have much more authentic interactions with my friends over Discord than I do with strangers or pseudo-strangers in public. In public then interaction is intentionally inauthentic (which feels emotionally isolating to me, at least); the person wants to be nice to me to get a better tip, I want to be nice to my boss to get a better review. The online interactions with my friends are somewhat hampered by our inability to read body language over a mostly audio medium. The former will require deep societal changes to make into honest interactions. The latter can be fixed by Apple & co using cameras and gyroscopes, which they are already pretty good at. I’m much more optimistic about the latter.
I'm guessing your online communication is done via something that uses pictures and videos like Instagram or Snapchat?
My main communication to my friends has been text-based chat for over 20 years, and I do have real and honest communication with them. When we meet physically, we continue where we left off online. Even if people have changed hairstyles, gained/lost weight etc. I wouldn't know, we don't share pictures or videos of each other regularly.
What's dishonest, or "not authentic" about this?
So I think part of this only exacerbates escapism. Getting back to true reality is going to require a fundamental jolt to humanity.
I agree and disagree with this at the same time. Does true reality mean tossing ourselves out in the plains of Africa with a stick fighting off wild animals? I mean ever since that point human intelligence has been on a divergent path from animal intelligence. We create fields and towns and societies that subject us to new realities. Why is one particularly different from another?
At the same time individual divergent realities means society stops existing. What will society look like if we have our own individual universes we can occupy? If you want to take this to an extreme, one could imagine a matrix we voluntarily hook ourselves up to where the machines are left to care for the physical world.
Look I'm an engineer like everyone else here. I've grown up on the internet, I've played games consoles since I was a child. I've lost myself to endless hours watching TV, movies, roaming the internet and building software till the odd hours. I'm also closing in on 40 so what I value now is not the same as what I thought was important 20 years ago. Living in some sort of matrix was really appealing back then but as my mortality becomes more apparent I reflect more on our existence and reason for being. In my opinion it's not to defer all of our faculties to a screen strapped to our faces. We are so far from the truth is crazy. But hey we'll keep going in that direction and like all technology there will be the pendulum of extremes and moderation. I will likely not use one of these devices for a long time and only when there's a compelling reason to do so and for limited periods of time. I think that's how all technology should be used, in limited capacity for the betterment of our lives. I do not want to stare at a screen for hours on end anymore and spatial computing is basically taking us further in that direction.
It's going to be an interesting ride.
In other words, there is actually a reason to hope that Meta might win: it seems like we could all do with more connectedness, and less isolation with incredible immersive experiences to dull the pain of loneliness. One wonders, though, if Meta is in fact fighting Apple not just on hardware, but on the overall trend of society; to put it another way, bullishness about the Vision Pro may in fact be a function of being bearish about our capability to meaningfully connect.
The idea is simple but profound.
However, for a company that prides itself on "shared" experiences, the VR is for "lonesome" experiences (watching a movie, watching vacation photos, etc) in some cases, but bang on for others (especially at work)
This will spurn the industry, just like the iPhone did, and hopefully, we will have a lot of use cases. To list a few.
1. Watching your family from afar, by linking two VR devices in real time. 2. Incredible engineering and design advances, with the combination of real time sharing, AR and VR merging. 3. A whole new way to experience content. Honestly, the idea of an unlimited screen size is appealing. 4. Incredible potential for gaming.
I think what's stopped other companies is that it was too damn hard; not that it wasn't the obviously superior way of doing things. (Obviously superior: render AR onto VR.)
Apple seems to have prioritized AR in a way that Meta didn't and that led them to exploring all the costs to do it right. (You can argue that Microsoft was also paying attention as their Mixed Reality-focused playbook resembles what Apple seems to be playing at. Microsoft just saw the costs as a reason to focus first on Enterprise customers. Apple seems to have the gumption to try to make this a potentially accessible to consumers play from Day One, including involving Disney to signal that. That's an interesting bet that will be curious to watch play out.)
The Quest Pro does that, just badly.
That said it seemed to be a major upgrade point on the announced Quest 3, so we’ll see how it compares.
But blather about the Apple "Vision" has replaced blather about GPT based chatbots on HN, so I am thankful for that.
But I am not being facetious when I say that I don't see any application for the technology that justifies the $3500 price tag. But I'm more than willing to be educated.
Is BMW going to use it to train assembly line workers?
Is it going to be used to assist people living in memory care by recognizing faces of people in their field of view and displaying identity annotations?
Are construction workers supposed to wear it so they can view 3D plans overlaid on top of actual construction? Maybe it's cameras can create a 3d model of existing construction to beam back to the site architect to get input about how to proceed?
These all seem plausible, but none of them are consumer apps. Is Apple now not selling direct to consumers? I just don't get the business around these things.
So for $3,500 I get a new laptop plus a 100 inch screen. To buy those separately would be far more than $3,500.
In my case I plan to buy it on day one because I want it for working. I'm tired of having to choose enjoying the nice weather outside while using a tiny 15 inch laptop screen or being inside at my desk with my 3 32" screens.
With Apple Vision, I can have my 3 32" screen outside. Or on the road. Or in the office when I drop in for a day. Or anywhere else I may go. It will be a huge boost in productivity and definitely worth the price.
That is the killer feature for me -- portability of my most productive setup.
I can't use Quest 2 for more than 30 minutes at a time: sweating, eye strain, etc.
Which means you'll also have to lug your MacBook around in order to use it on the go, and you won't be able to have your 3 monitors, just the one.
If your 3 32 inch screens are running collectively at 2.1k bits, they must be pretty old. Why not just keep them? They're fully depreciated.
And it runs an entirely new OS, so I have to buy apps for it again. Or cope with VisionSafari being slightly different than desktop safari and wait for Adobe to support it.
When I want to go outside, I just take my laptop outside. It's much easier to see in the full light. Plus, I can change the distance of things I focus on, which is supposedly good for vision.
But I was asking about the "killer app." What can you do with this thing that you can't do with a laptop, phone or desktop computer?
The work scenario could just mean using it for meetings and collaboration, or it could just mean working with large virtual screens. In any case, if you’re working from your bedroom or from your drab office, a virtual environment could be, I dunno, refreshing?
What if we could /all/ work in a beautiful space with lots of natural material surfaces and huge windows with views of beautiful forests? Sure, it’s all fake, but maybe fake nature is better than real offices?
“Work” also gives you reason to pick it up every day, unlike my neglected Oculus and Vive. If it’s useful for work and easy to slap on, I might bother to keep it charged and handy on my desk.
And then it won’t really matter what I’m wearing when I get on a Teams call…
I won't be getting one for $3500, but if I was single or a higher earner I probably would. I'm sure they'll sell as many as they can make.
Heh, this is where you're making a mistake... GPT agents + generated worlds + Apple Vision will be the blather in another year where people go into simulated realities to check out.
As much as I hate all the bluster about chatGPT, an application like this could actually work. NeRF models are already fairly capable of generating indoor environments like this, and backrooms-style spaces lean on repetitive structured and uncanniness so having them be generated on-the-fly helps lean into the experience.
Imagine DeepDream (2015), but inside apple vision someday.
Heading toward whole new frontiers of traumatizing people.
Personally I value having a great bed and a great car because treating yourself makes it worthwhile. Having a dream environment the times I am alone? Having a theatre experience stuck on the toilet? I am looking forward to when the hardware can simultaneously do all of this at once.
However, how practical that really ends up being relies on how the OS is positioned and the kind of thing it can run. If it ends up like MacOS, yeh I can see that being very useful, but if it ends up like iPadOS (or god forbid iOS), well I can just say anecdotally after owning an ipad for however-many years this is the first time I've even considered using multiple monitors for that kind of thing.
I’ve tried out working in VR using oculus and immersed. I’ve really liked the experience but the blurry text was a deal breaker. From the reviews so far, that might not be a problem anymore.
4K per eye could simply be a magical tech thanks which enables immersion, and we're in the midst of passing that milestone now, in 2023.
I wander what the R and D cost for the Vision Pro is, 10x Magic Leaps investment, $35 billion over last 5 years? Seems plausible...
Their total R&D expense is about €100B in same time period.
This is the space program that brought us Tang, so to speak.
Even if this thing flops magnificently, the whole Apple ecosystem will have been enriched by its development. From that perspective, it seems like a pretty low-risk high-reward effort for Apple, whatever it might have cost all told.
I also wonder if the real time OS stuff is a byproduct of the Apple Car project. As soon as they mentioned the R2 chip I immediately was asking myself "Did this come from the car project or will this make its way to the car project". Even if they never ship a car the tech they have to build/discover/etc in the process can help other product lines. Just like throwing Lidar into the phones/iPad Pro or all the ML/AR stuff helped this headset.
So yeah, it's not just hard to pin down, but a lot of the work that led to this is foundational for other Apple products as well (either as core like Mac Ms or features like Continuity) so it's seamless with other products.
I expect until the last year or so this has been well under $1bn per year (based on 1000 people at $300k/yr, $300m). This will have ramped up as they begin figuring out mass production, but I'd still be surprised if this is more than single-digit billions for the last year, as it's not like they're reserving enough manufacturing or supplier capacity to make 100m of these devices yet.
They have the advantage that they had a lot of this in place for their portables. Magic did not and had to start from scratch.
I suppose it's hard to judge how much of the R&D cost for Apple silicone, their cameras, LiDAR and iOS should be counted as costs for the Vision Pro.
I guess it depends whether you want an all-in cost to compare to Magic Leap, in which case you could argue that most of the history of Apple has set them up for this – if you want to make a great VR headset, just make the best phone ever first – if you want to make the best phone ever, just make a great personal computer first, just acquire NEXT first, etc. I don't know where you draw the line.
More useful I think is to say what did it cost the companies above what they were already doing. For Magic Leap it's the whole business, for Apple it's not much, for Microsoft it's somewhere in the middle, for Meta it's maybe closer to Magic Leap.
Face unlocking tech on the iPhone applies to eye tracking (and eye unlocking). Battery tech applies across devices. All the new cameras on the last few years' of iPhones. And so on.
So it's totally reasonable that total all in is in the 10s of billions.
I see this as an early-era Tesla car, but without the long term prospect. A lot of people will buy it because it is expensive. It's something that happens with most apple products
I think a real display replacement (in terms of shrinking down your monitor/TV to something you can trivially carry around with you) seems like a real use case.
You can even use your laptop and mirror the screen into a bigger one.
I agree that “Vision” is a good product name, but “Vision Pro” just feels intensely pedestrian. Why is it called “Pro?” Is there a non-Pro version?
edit: the fanatics are really out with the downvotes today
Or simply to distinguish from their existing Vision software that has nothing to do with the headset: https://developer.apple.com/documentation/vision
Perfect time to bring back the "i", though they already have "iSight". "iBorg"?
iPiece?
Even in 2023 EVFs aren't as nice to look through as OVF from the 80s though. I'm always surprised when I pick up my old film nikon after shooting digital for a while.
No matter what you do, real life will always look better than a screen, especially if said screen sits 2cm from your eyeball
It is that human nature that makes me believe that any device like this that doesn't have real-time interactions baked-in, no matter how cool they are, will always default to media consumption because media consumption is the main use case where you don't necessarily want to have a shared experience.
This device seems absolutely amazing and likely much more in the same vertical as home theater than personal computing. FWIW, I also don't buy into the work aspect of this, either. Partially because most people aren't in the Apple ecosystem for productivity apps, but mostly because as another person stated, nobody is going to use a digital avatar in a work setting. A static image or even just being on camera wearing the headset would feel much more normal. Sure, I could see it being great for certain applications like email but not enough of a catch-all to be the only device you use in a work setting.
The real usecase is porn, but they're too tactful to say it.
If the future is strapping a phone to your face and never leaving the house, I'm ready to be left in the past.
On the tech side, I’m just guessing, but it looks like Apple has an even better version of VR189. A 6dof version of VR180 seems entirely plausible for Apple to pull off with NeRFs and would be even more incredible.
Again, I agree that it’s a bit weird for personal memories, both on the recording side (possibly awkward to wear goggles in those situations) and even watching personal memories.
However, I’d expect Apple to make recording spatial videos possible w iPhone/iPad, which at least fixes the awkward recording issue.
Even with that possibility, I think Apple hurt themselves using this “personal memory spatial video” example.
For me, the far better use cases are for entertainment. Professional, live (and recorded) spatial video will be huge. Everyone can have front row, court side, or even birds-eye views of all forms of in-person entertainment. Sports, plays, comedy, concerts, orchestras. The experience of watching it is so intimate experientially I think it will be amazing. Looks like the tech to make it happen is finally here. Imagine them owning “the App Store” for spatial video pay-per-view…
Excited to see where this goes!
The apple fanaticism on this site is really something special, I see no universe in which an idiotic product like this is touted as even somewhat desirable if it didn't have the Apple logo plastered on top of it (with the associated ludicrous price tag)
I mean, quite obviously the recording tech will be a standalone device (and maybe even an iPhone which are ubiquitous at these events already) someday. The Vision headset has all the hardware already so why not let it capture videos? Just set it on the counter or something...
This has become one of those meme-y dismissals that I see in all the discussions but it's so transitory I can't imagine it possibly mattering.
If you read the article, you'll see him mention this as well, and also call out that it uses some "Apple Immersive Video Format" (which is something I didn't hear in the keynote), so this is the clear intention.
This isn't much different from that.
Recording using an iPhone would an upgrade as your kids can now much better see your facial expressions and you would be able to turn around to make a "selfie" recording showing both you and the kids in the movie.
I don't know why people keep projecting their own desires onto others, lol.
Like it or not, doesn't matter if on extreme left or right or anywhere in between, people en masse like it. That they often don't admit it publicly is another topic. Can't beat a billion years of evolution baked into the very foundation of each of us.
That’s what Google Glass tried and it flopped anyway. People also found a camera on glasses (like the Google Glass version) to be highly creepy. Apple emphasized that the front of these glasses will clearly indicate when someone’s taking a photo or video (to the subjects who’re seeing it).
But maybe it will be possible through the Safari browser or something.
It would have been quite cool for them to announce that all your iPhone 14 videos were actually recorded in 3D and ready for Apple Vision all along.
(iPhone 15 or 16 will include the ability to "...take spectacular 3D photos that are incredible when viewed with a Vision Pro!!!" -- sorry, that quote is me imagining an Apple presenter at a future iPhone event.)
So it does seem like a VR/AR device fully focused on those use cases could be good for pushing the tech forward. Won't be Apple that does that, though.
Side note, it's so interesting that GPUs were pulled forward by gaming, and then GPUs ended up becoming a key enabler in AI.
The video part I don't understand at all. I've never watched a VR video that made me go "wow, I've gotta watch all videos in VR now." I found it annoying, the scale is weird, an annoying headset, with less freedom to view what's going on that a traditional tv.
This removes the awkwardness of the capture experience, and creates demand for the Vision device.
VR porn is generally meh, no? It's a nice gimmick but is it really better beyond the novely factor?
> Indeed, this, even more than the iPhone, is the true personal computer. Yes, there are affordances like mixed reality and EyeSight to interact with those around you, but at the end of the day the Vision Pro is a solitary experience.
Absolutely. I can imagine myself using an Vision Pro from my home office. I can imagine myself using a Vision Pro while on a plane. So I can imagine using it either where I'm already physically alone or where I want to be physically isolated from other humans nearby.
I can also imagine myself using a Vision Pro to connect with other humans who are physically distant (the FaceTime demo).
What I cannot ever imagine is having the Vision Pro on my head while interacting with other people in the room (the dad watching his kids demo), nor can I even imagine using them as part of a shared entertainment experience. e.g., I cannot imagine my wife and I each having a pair of these and using them to watch a movie "together".
But, watching a movie with other people when we are all physically distant from each other? Yes, that I can imagine.
I can see myself buying a pair of these. I'm fascinated by the technology and by the ability to use them in my home office.
I don't really see them taking the place of my home theater, but maybe... 95% of the time I use it alone because my wife prefers to read a book.
> I am completely serious when I say that I would pay the NBA thousands of dollars to get a season pass to watch games captured in this way. Yes, that’s a crazy statement to make, but courtside seats cost that much or more, and that 10-second clip was shockingly close to the real thing.
Personally, I think that watching a game while being virtually part of the crowd would leave me feeling lonely and isolated. It's one thing to watch a game alone, seeing the other people cheering. It seems like an altogether different experience being part of the crowd while not really being part of the crowd.
On the NBA games, I reckon it would be a matter of deciding whether being able to get a courtside experience for a far cheaper price counted for more than the isolation. And being able to get a drink from the fridge. And not having to deal with driving and parking. And for sports events which are otherwise sold out or on the other side of the world. I can see this being a huge thing if the price and functionality are right.
I love the VR experience of Gran Turismo for driving. It is truly immersive in ways that is hard to communicate and makes me glad I have the VR. Even with that, the game is not nearly as fun without a force feedback steering wheel. Not even close. To the point that a moderate screen with the steering wheel is a better experience than the VR without.
To the point that the idea that I will do any elaborate hand/arm gestures to interact with something I can't feel, just doesn't seem like something that will fly.
Do I like that it has the ability to work without a controller? I mean, sure? But I also have no problem using controllers for gaming, and I don't see that going away anytime soon for a lot of games.
So, the idea that you will have a mobile workspace that can go with you where ever you want it is unlikely to actually work. Is it easier than taking a monitor? I mean, sure. Probably not as easy as taking a laptop, though. Especially with how long the battery lasts. (And the laptop almost certainly fits more easily in a bag.)
Or will this be akin to how siri does a shit job understanding anything that is not mechanical in speech? Will be absolutely hilarious if it has a hard time recognizing non-light skinned hands for the gestures. Really hope they don't make that mistake.
Thankfully many of the people in the demo videos were people of colour, so I’m fairly confident Apple has gotten that bit right and hopefully their gesture detecting cameras have IR or dot-pattern emitters to work in the dark as well.
Apple Vision Pro: Apple’s first spatial computer - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36201593 - June 2023 (2685 comments)
Also:
Apple Vision predictive bio-feedback - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36210133 - June 2023 (46 comments)
visionOS - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36208735 - June 2023 (58 comments)
First impressions: Yes, Apple Vision Pro works and yes, it’s good - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36207705 - June 2023 (437 comments)
Apple's Vision Pro headset deserves to be ridiculed - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36204653 - June 2023 (130 comments)
Ask HN: At $3500 entry point who can afford Apple’s new Vision Pro headset? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36202898 - June 2023 (28 comments)
Apple reveals Vision Pro, a AR/VR headset unlike any other - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36200958 - June 2023 (53 comments)
Apple Vision Pro Is Apple's New VR Headset - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36200884 - June 2023 (156 comments)
Apple Reveals 'Vision Pro' Headset - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36200777 - June 2023 (159 comments)
Apple’s Vision Pro AR headset is finally here - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36200708 - June 2023 (162 comments)
The author was shown a 10-second clip and is ready to hand over thousands of dollars.
A few paragraphs later he acknowledges that it was just a 10-second clip, but there was also another clip, so a total of 20 seconds - surely enough to write an opinion piece of thousands of words.
The reality-shaping power of Apple's demo maestros is truly admirable.
I'm an XR believer too and I'm very happy that Apple is entering the market with a high-end device that's not for gaming. At the same time, we have to recognize that the history of this form factor is littered with amazing 10-second demos that failed to deliver actual user value, from recent failures like Magic Leap going all the way back to the late 1980s and Jaron Lanier's VPL Research.
* Headaches
* Nausea
* Eye Strain
* Neck Pain
* Acne (from sitting on the same parts of your face all the time)
Etc. Also, reading text is incredibly difficult and exasperating which is this things whole value prop since it's targeting office work. Until anyone can actually try this and ensure that these are all non-issues, all the speculation is a weird cultic worship of Apple.
Just in case people forget, here's some misleading advertisements for Google Glass that didn't quite live up to the hype[0][1]. And some misleading advertisements about holo lense that didn't quite live up to the hype[2]. Full disclaimer, I have a valve index but haven't tried holo lens or Google Glass, but the fact that they're not ubiquitous today says something. It's especially funny that the holo lens looks very similar to Apple Vision, and then Apple makes these ridiculous claims about innovativing where no one else has. I swear I must be taking crazy pills or something.
[0]: https://youtu.be/4EvNxWhskf8
Apple generally succeeds with mass market friendly ergonomics. I understand skepticism about unreleased technology, but I personally wouldn’t make the assumption Apple has botched the ergonomics on this release. It seems like exactly the kind of thing they would have focused on reaching a high level of quality with.
In 2005 people would have predicted a flop for smartphones given the many failures of the like of Apple Newton
Because this pattern is has been done again and again it’s fairly obvious. The first is the high bar for releasing at all and the willingness to let it die before launching something less than 220% better than industry standard despite tons of investment (apple car?). The second is the progressive improvement over the first several iterations that advances the product in the remaining gaps as their technology improves.
To me, this feels fairly objective and rational and not particularly cultish. It’s the benefit of an earned reputation and a clear and adhered to product development strategy.
VR people advertising to me a "real life like meetings along with a meeting room, whiteboard and full body avatars" are either clueless or delusional, because that stuff has actually a negative value FOR WORK. Sure, when you have something like an online party (yay... fun...) then seeing other can be entertaining. But not for actual work.
The only thing stopping me from working for extended periods inside one of the headsets I currently own is the fact that the resolution they run at is too low for me to put enough text on the screen. I can absolutely believe that a headset with a higher resolution would make that use case viable for me.
It seems more likely to me that the reviewers who are hopeful about the product after their 30 minutes of use of the headset (some of whom are indeed very experienced users of AR/VR hardware) simply don't struggle with the individual issues that you have.
This might actually end up being the hardest bit to solve. VR has to create a dark room for your face, so removing facial contact is practically impossible.
There are very few things that normies will accept, if the compromise is more acne.
iStrain. You're welcome.
It really isn't just the demos that wow us, and it isn't just the high-end device. The device is packed with tech, for sure. But 80% of the story here is Apple's strong design choices:
"Here's how you will interact with the world. Here's how other people fit in. This is how UI is going to display. We rewrote our entire UI stack on top of a physically based renderer so developers can comfortably recompile their millions of existing apps. Here's how we process-isolated the gaze tracking so no third-party app will be able to data-mine it for personalised Ads"
They didn't just build a headset and call it a day. They didn't show useless, aspirational demos (though during the keynote, Disney certainly showed a whole lot of rubbish). They developed the UI paradigms, human interface guidelines, put huge thought towards accessibility. Those of us impressed with this are not wowed by just hardware, we're amazed by the amount and strength of design thought put into every aspect of your interaction with this computer. There's so much _opinion_ about what this computer should be, and how we should use it, that's the exciting thing
Their opinions may not pan out in the future. But I'm so glad _someone_ is having strong opinions about human computer interaction in the AR/VR space, because Meta and the rest certainly don't
Granted, as a parent, the scene of the airline person upset that there is a kid on the flight is... off putting. To the extreme. Especially when the response is "ugh, thank goodness I can turn off all visual senses around me." SMH
And I am struggling to see any UI design/consideration that was new in this clip. Do you have a rundown on exactly what was amazing?
A court side seat to an NBA game is north of $1000. If this creates 20% of the experience it will easily pay for itself in 1 season.
A 10 second clip that will have been tuned to perfection by the very best editors for the demo is one thing. A live, un/rough-edited capture of a game broadcast in real time is quite different.
I've seen some truly amazing sports coverage to show off my OLED TV when I bought it. I still have the USB drive the TV came with and it does indeed look gorgeous. You know what doesn't look quite so good? Live broadcasts of those same sports. They are pixelated with some macroblocking and judder and posterization as the cameras quickly pan around the field and cut randomly.
It still looks pretty good but no way near as good as the minute long demo video LG used to show off how good their TV can look.
Obviously I've not used a Vision Pro so my comment isn't about the Vision Pro specifically, just that it is quite easy to make things look very good in a highly tuned demo for something vs real world broadcast quality.
Or perhaps the appeal of court-side seats is the atmosphere, experience and social signaling, none of which are provided by these glasses.
Our desire for "cheap" court-side seats is understandable from an evolutionary sense. But it's almost like these glasses (and VR in general) are designed to provide the "feeling" of evolutionary benefit while carefully and completely removing any actual benefit.
* You can't do the math from a baseline of "not watching the game at all". If this creates 20% of the experience but a $1000 TV creates a different 20% of the experience (watching with other people next to you, for example), you haven't gained any value over the cheaper device.
* Unless you're regularly buying NBA tickets, this isn't going to "pay for itself". Solar panels can (in theory) pay for themselves because they cut back on a bill you'd have either way. A product like this can only pay for itself if it causes you to spend less money on NBA tickets than you otherwise would have.
Having a courtside seat is a physical constraint that does not need to be respected in VR.
Have you ever watched the announcement of a new videogame console? Or even new videogames?
10 seconds of marketing don't extrapolate well to 10 days of actual usage.
That would be economic suicide for them. They need to keep the seats being a special experience.
These journalists who get this launch-day experience were selected for their history of writing nice things about Apple. They're being shown the device in ideal conditions under the watchful eye of Apple's world-leading PR team, and they've been primed for years to expect something amazing from the Next Big Apple Product. There isn't a tremendous amount of objectivity in these circumstances.
Does Apple have a a history of doing this?
I think that's why people are excited.
On the software side there are more misses, but also the stakes are lower.
It's a great track record for thirty years, of course. All the other big tech companies have graveyards full of half-assed product launches.
I think the killer was that in the Platforms State of the Union, they didn't show anybody wearing the thing, even while saying "and I can send it to the device and look at it there". Almost like they were embarrassed by it, or something...
There's a big difference between just five games and all the games in a season.
I could totally see it moving $3500 headsets if it were actually all games. Also 180° is good enough for a lot of things but for this you'd want 360°.
I like the Marques Brownlee takes, he's one of the "30 minutes hands on" guys: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFvXuyITwBI
He seems fairly well impressed, at least in the first half of the video ...
One of the things we have dissected in our MBA class was Apple's Iphone reveal and how carefully choreographed[1] it was ( I am being very generous given my anti-Apple bias ). You could argue that Apple was simply lying since the product was not ready, but looking back, they were able to deliver on the promise of that reveal.
Oddly, it makes me somewhat hopeful that this product will work as well. I am not ready to shell out that cash on it just yet, but I will be looking at SDK as soon as they actually release it. Heavens protect me; I want to play with that toy.
[1]https://www.macrumors.com/2013/10/04/former-apple-engineer-g...
It makes me think about the article's earlier reference to the iPad's launch:
> Jobs went on to list a number of things he thought the iPad might be better at, including web browsing, email, viewing photos, watching videos, listening to music, playing games, and reading eBooks.
You know what else the iPad is good at? Perhaps having a wide enough frame, while in landscape mode, such that multiple back-side cameras can be far enough apart to get as good a depth-of-field as the Vision has? And, potentially, at being a preview device with good enough eye tracking (perhaps via multiple front-side cameras) to at least mimic the 3D effect when previewing, before you put Vision on for the full experience?
Dad holding up this kind of "iPad Vision," or putting an iPad Vision that's capturing the memories on an (automatically swiveling and face-tracking) "TRiPod," is far superior to putting on the goggles!
(Apple, please please hire me as your product naming visionary. I have many more punny names where these come from.)
But I can see why Apple would sequence the releases so that Vision comes first; the iPad Vision and TRiPod and accoutrements are likely to be expensive and perhaps even clunky at first, more akin to a pro camera rig than anything previously released, and would need to be justified by a "magical" viewing experience.
Make no mistake, though - Vision is just the beginning of an ecosystem that will be built around these experiences, and one that I think can complement our in-person interactions in a profoundly social and human way.
Lord. Watch any of the D#'s and hear Walt, Steve and Kara talk about things. Steve's Apple is just matter of fact simple, no heady logic - just bare sense. Listen to how many times he says "you want to do this, how we want to do that" - everything at Apple was perfecting what we innately wanted to do but just didn't know how to. If you hear anything other than: 'We make the best things for the things we want to do everyday' - please reply it here.
There was also a moment where he spoke directly to not making a PDA because the phone is what we already had, already understand to use, and implicitly know what would be amazing if we saw it.
The PDA is VR/AR, glasses are the phone*
*one could argue glasses are not even the goal and to that I'm not sold
In regular I disagree with your assertion. As long as these end up being cheaper than a couple 4K monitors, which I imagine will happen by the end of the decade, it would be worth it for that alone. And that is to speak nothing of the onboard compute.
While the AR aspect of it helps somewhat, I did note also during the presentation the ridiculous clip with the father wearing the headset at his child's birthday party, and especially how all the examples uses except in a professional setting were for individual lonely users. Both exciting and terrifying at the same time.
Apple said : "We are going to throw infinite money at a pilot product that's basically a tech demo, and convince the market that this tech is for-real-for-real."
Meanwhile, Facebook refused to create a balls-to-the-wall VR headset for years and still ended up with a conservative 1500$ device even though they knew no one will purchase it. T̶o̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶f̶a̶i̶r̶,̶ ̶C̶a̶r̶m̶a̶c̶k̶ ̶h̶a̶d̶ ̶b̶e̶e̶n̶ ̶p̶u̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶-̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶d̶e̶v̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶t̶ ̶s̶i̶d̶e̶l̶i̶n̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶Z̶u̶c̶k̶'̶s̶ ̶p̶u̶s̶h̶ ̶t̶o̶w̶a̶r̶d̶s̶ ̶c̶h̶e̶a̶p̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶s̶c̶a̶l̶e̶.̶ (I might have mis-remembered)
Apple's strategy is dead obvious. Of course. When you want people to change how they have consumed information for decades, you HAVE to blow their socks off. Samsung understood this with the 2000$ Fold devices. The first computers cost tens-of-thousands of 2023 dollars. Car manufacturers understand this with Halo cars.
Facebook had a 7-8 year head start, and it never struck them to lead with a 'Halo VR device' ? Meta has among the best ML teams in the world who could produce 'Apple quality' face renders with ease. Sadly, the entire group was strapped down due to limitations of the kind of compute you can fit into a 400$ device.
premature optimization is the root of all evil -Knuth
Amen Donald, Amen.____________
What makes Apple great:
All big companies have competent employees. Competent employees come together in dysfunctional manners. 100 good ideas produce 1 terrible one and the final result looks worse than any of the initial solutions.
Apple somehow manages to preserve their obvious wisdoms & the brilliance of the best ideas across their development (product and software) process. The constant erosion caused by committees, meetings & standard communication friction does not atrophy the seed that was the initial idea.
It seems like faint praise. But, despite sounding easy, Apple seems to be the only company that's able to do this on a consistent basis with physical electronics. (video games, cars, construction projects achieve this in their field, but consumer electronics seems to completely lack this, barring Apple)
Some % of the company seems to be focused on extremely polished loooonngg term second market mover advantage of bleeding edge tech, and some % of the company seems to be focused on continuous improvement of what exists today.
Apple does a great job of working on cutting edge technology that is generally applicable, watching other companies implement that technology, and then leap frogging them. At the same time, they improve their current offerings and "future focused groups" learn from what "current focused groups" are doing. I guess it's why you see fits and starts from Apple.
Has Apple every introduced anything totally new? Has Apple really "invented" anything product wise? I think they're just masters of second market mover advantage.
This is a great blog post:
https://researchnarrative.com/thinkerry/the-company-that-cou...
"In 1979, a 24-year-old Steve Jobs struck a deal with the executives at Xerox: Jobs would allow the investment wing of Xerox to buy shares in Apple at a pre-IPO price, and in exchange Apple’s team of engineers would get to take an “open-kimono” tour of Xerox PARC. Over two visits, Apple engineers were given the ability to look under the hood of PARC’s most impressive innovations."
What a deal to strike, and at 24.
Is that true? From this article[1], it sounds like he had been pushing for cheap headsets, not expensive ones:
> There he talked about his internal efforts to push for the development of a "super cheap, super lightweight" Meta VR headset that could come in at "$250 and 250 grams." Instead, Meta has put its recent VR hardware efforts behind the heavily overdesigned and expensive $1,500 Quest Pro. "We're not building that [cheap, light] headset today, but I keep trying," Carmack said with some exasperation during the keynote.
[1] https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/12/john-carmack-leaves-m...
And beyond that, we're talking about a hardware platform that only exists for Apple. Meta isn't in a position to spin up a fab and out perform Qualcomm. What are the alternatives?
I think you're grossly underestimating how easy this win is.
You have that completely backwards.
> "I've always been clear that I'm all about the cost-effective mass-market headsets being the most important thing for us and for the adoption of VR," Carmack said. "And Quest Pro is definitely not that..."
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/10/carmack-wants-a-250-v...
Even if Apple found the displays, cameras, sensors, etc. the one thing they won't find available is the processors(s). Apple is shipping an M2 chip, which they use for desktop computing as well as a custom new chip to handle sensor information. I read that the actual parts cost of the Vision Pro is $1500, and that's with Apple having huge contracts with their suppliers for other components and getting a discount. Add in R&D costs and even at $3500 Apple is likely not making much on this device. If Meta were to make a similar device I think it would cost $5k or they would have to sell it at a major loss.
According to the Lex Friedman podcast interview with Carmack, Carmack has been pushing for lower spec, cheap VR, probably on a phone, IIRC. Something people can afford and use day to day
Then, using better use of hardware resources to push more performance out of vr/ar apps.
He believes more in optimization than ordinary programmers. Doom runs on modern conference phones and smart appliances
Fundamentally, these companies have to show how their product is a) unique and b) useful in a way that differentiates the headset from using a laptop or a tablet or a smartphone. I think all of them are great at marketing point a but seriously struggle with point b. Getting widespread adoption, in any way, requires moving beyond novelty factor and into serious impact on how people work or go about their lives. Apple seems to be really focusing on domestic, 'casual' applications, or 'knowledge work' style arrangements, like meetings or co-operative creative work. I don't think people will find much benefit in that outside of their normal desktop workstations. AR in warehouse or construction or more labour intensive situations or (unfortunately) military applications is actually where I think something like these headsets could be more successful. Cheaper devices do have an advantage in that respect, so long as the tech matches the user need. To summarize my point, I think we're still a good decade or more away from the point when these headsets reach anything near moderate adoption. At some point the cheap devices, the amazing tech, and the clear use-case will converge; but I don't think we're there yet.
It's funny watching the interactions between tech reviewers and (usually Shenzhen-based) consumer-electronics startups — think earbuds, "retro consoles", etc.
Almost inevitably, the reviewer gradually develops domain knowledge from reviewing dozens of entrants into the space that allow them to say exactly what would make for a good device. Then one of the startups invites the reviewer to collaborate on a product design with them. The model that the reviewer had design input on becomes wildly successful, because it actually does some stuff right. And then, as soon as the reviewer is gone, everything the company makes goes right back to having the same obvious flaws. As if they're constitutionally incapable of learning what made their one good product succeed in the market and just replicating it.
And it remains to be seen if Apple's approach will work (though I suspect it will, over time... as you suggest, the premium device will set the market and later Apple will make cheaper devices available that make different tradeoffs.)
Apple can surprise you with how successful things they make can be, but I can't think of a product they have now that wasn't already in space with tons of successes. Phones, tablets, watches, earbuds, all were already fairly popular. Tablets maybe being the one they really brough into the fold of common use, but the others already existed they just "perfected" them. This is...mostly a failed space with very little penetration. It will be much harder.
The only other company in the world that has an extensive OS ecosystem like that is Microsoft.
Everyone else never really had a chance to make a new class of device.
I suspect Apple VR will lead to a short and shallow VR boom, followed by it going the way of Apple TV, 3D TV and (not quite comparable, so with reservations) AR glasses.
That is why people talk about culture a whole lot and why it is so important. I wonder if the culture is set and can never be changed though. Is it an immutable property of companies based on initialization?
I think too much is made about the "personal vs social" binning of Meta vs Apple.
It's true off the bat, but, is more useful as a hook to hang philosophy about our isolated selves on, than a concrete projection of how this is going to develop.
To put a sharp edge on that, I will go so far as to say I think this is quite the wrong take, and I have receipts. Maybe.
The FaceTime bit about scanning your face, and presenting you sans mask in teleconferencing? Great, I look fine in FaceTime!
...the exercise left to the student to infer is that if you can appear in FaceTime, next you can appear in the space with me outside that frame. Or your AI-backed agent, which also you know, can replicate your manner of speaking and voice, because Apple has infinite hours new and old of your speech, written and verbal, on tap, right?
You and proxy-you are going to be in shared space with other wearers... soon.
And then well we have something world-altering to deal with,
because our monkey-minds fully accept such figures as "real" and our memories filter out the virtuality of our interactions, where our analytic mind does not.
The world of "Her" and Joe's "girl friend" in Blade Runner etc are all getting really close. See the clickbait about someone "marrying" their AI boyfriend yesterday?
Anyway I digress, but, yeah, I think Apple is quietly collecting cards for shared virtual presence, and as per usual will take their time to make it wow on disclosure.
The design as-is looks better than 95% of other headsets, but still strikes me as a bit clunky.
Even with my Quest 2 I notice the lack of push back in the hand controllers during motion, for things like flying games, and fps makes it very difficult to use. You almost always need an attachment to make it feel better.
Yes. Marques Brownlee describes this in his latest video.
One did say, I think either from CNET or from creative solutions, which you can find on YouTube, that pass through cameras where the highest quality they had ever seen. And they are experts. It was CNET, now that I remember. And he talked about looking at his wrist watch and being able to make out the detail on his watch's text.
I'm viewing this release from Apple as, essentially, a public DevKit for more slick versions of the same kit in the future.
Something with the described functionality, but the form factor of something closer to Google Glass would 100% be game-changing
ie. You develop your AR apps on this, and then come out with something much more user-friendly in a couple of versions time.
I'm just not convinced that most people want to walk around with this thing on their face for any extended period of time, regardless of how amazing the tech is (and it is amazing!)
Time will tell, I guess.
this problem is most obvious in video games, where eye watering graphics are prevalent but gameplay sucks. Once it gets to 8K per eye with decent FoV, it will truly look pretty close to reality.
The fact that Apple took this bet isn’t indicative of the current product, it’s indicative of the future. They’re correct in almost every product bet they make. If you don’t see it, you’re probably not seeing the long game.
It just leads to pointless arguments, e.g. about whether a person said VR when they meant AR, etc. and to the awkward MR and XR terms.
How much is real and how much is virtual is inherently variable, and good devices (at least for general purpose usage) will make it quite fluid.
Apple saying they are doing AR which does not mean anything. If you use the headset as a big "projected computer screen" I doubt people really care if the actual surrounding is there or if that makes any difference.
I'm also curious about how which unexpected consequences people will experience with such devices (nausea, etc... other unknown illnesses cropping up)
See https://youtu.be/OdHbQpg4pOA for a discussion of related display panel types.
so you buy a "skin-fixing" filter and your skin does not look that old and crappy anymore (to you - and also to all your registered friends if you buy the Pro version); hey lets attach a "mustache-adding" filter to that particular aunt (haha) ; f*, lets generate a new face for my partner - ah i always wanted a blondie..
yeah. but still Alone.
I note that nobody in the Apple presentation was using finger flicks to delete and rearrange windows. Which I think were kind-of-iconic UI gestures in MR.
Seems like a market that the article missed.
I don't think Apple has ever had public demos of products not yet available for sale.
This reminds me of the following two scenes from Brainstorm (1983 film):
Honestly curious -- it's a challenge for most podcasts / content producers.
[was with an avatar in a window]
And how Meta is fixing that exactly?
don't recall seeing that on the presentation..
also
2hrs battery, on a flight can you carry those...
inconvenient (impractical?)
Most flights have plug sockets now don't they, you're sitting down in a confined space, it seems fine to plug it in.
Any even if you can't plug it in, I'd guarantee it'll be below the 100Wh restriction that almost all airlines use, there aren't really any consumer electronics batteries above this precisely because you can't travel with them. They would also be huge and heavy.
I experimented with a keyboard/mouse in an Oculus headset and having physical keys under your fingers is much better. Only problem was that I couldn't see the keyboard inside the headset which was a bummer.
No, Meta is focused on intrusive advertising, abating the law, and recording history about people against their explicit desire.
It will most likely flop because it has no reliable input.
So far FrankenQuest 2/3 is on top: http://move.rupy.se/file/FrankenQuest.png
Let's see what Valve can do...
I feel like I’ve read this comment verbatim in at least one other thread in the last day or so…am I in the vr simulation already?
This reads like the critiques just after the iPhone was announced that it will flop because it didn’t have a physical keyboard…
Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile choose not to serve the valley I live in, why should I reward them by buying an expensive plan? From time to time I've had a Tracfone but after a few years I wind up with 3000+ minutes because my average mobile call lasts under 2 minutes.
Practically I use an iPad to do almost everything people use phones for, even making telephone calls with Skype. I'm just waiting for them to shush me at the public library and point out the sign that says using a phone isn't allowed and tell them I'm not using a phone, I'm using a tablet. (My typical call is so short though they don't have time)
I constantly complain about "phonishness" invading the PC and other computing platforms, like Reddit trying to push you to use their mobile crapp. I still see the phone as a step backwards in computing, not a step forwards, particularly if you are forced to use that other mobile OS that has a trashcan as its logo.