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> What might be seen as exponential progress could actually be the accumulation of a few tremendous leaps

This is what exponential progress is as long as the leaps continue happening

While I agree with your point, I think it ultimately depends on the timescale we're looking at. In other words, if we're looking at a timescale of several years, it's conceivable that we've been experiencing such leaps several times over the previous rate (or more?) for about the past decade. However, if we're looking at a matter of a few weeks, it may seem like we're stagnating. The point is that we cannot predict if these leaps will continue to occur, and when they will happen.

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