There is actually a bayesian version which I wrote: https://github.com/ealdwulf/bbchop

Basically it calculates the commit to test at each step which gains the most information, under some trivial assumptions. The calculation is O(N) in the number of commits if you have a linear history, but it requires prefix-sum which is not O(N) on a DAG so it could be expensive if your history is complex.

Never got round to integrating it into git though.