Declassified U.S. report on origins of Covid-19 virus [pdf]

I mean I can understand if there was an accidental lab leak of an engineered virus that killed millions was created in a Chinese lab with American tax dollars why those involved might want that information suppressed and to go away but why is it important to Klinky to take up that cause?

Whenever I see a claim of this type, I always wonder how you back it up?

I'm not saying that most geneticists don't believe what you're saying, because I have no clue what most members of any profession believe about anything. I have plenty of gut feelings, but how do you go beyond that?

Did you mean most geneticists that you know? That you've seen articles from?

There are literally millions of people in China who live in close proximity to bats. You don't have to invoke the 1-in-a-million lab worker here (who will be much more careful than the other 999,999 people, anyways). There are literally people who go shovel bat poop out of caves for a living. Then there are all the millions of farmed animals that have contact with bats - this is how the original SARS got into people.

A lab worker getting infected in a cave and then going back to Wuhan is not the best theory. It's an extremely improbable explanation for the pandemic, when you realize just how much contact people and farmed animals have with bats.

There’s a scientific claim in there; I will freely admit that I don’t know enough about viral genetics to have a valid opinion about it. What I do know is that people disagree about the implication of the furin cleavage site and it’s poor form not to acknowledge that.

Well we don't really, and to me that's part of the problem. Until we know, we don't know.

> And all of the effort debating lab leak or not just distracts time and attention from actual efforts to prevent it from happening again.

In America perhaps, and other polarized polities. As a scientist, again, I cannot comprehend how anyone can see this as a waste of time. We will surely learn a lot from tracking it through time.

I see that the polarising labels got stuck to this issue, and it's unfortunate, but it is in no way inherent to the question.

It's a political topic, so it naturally has positions staked out by both sides. There's not much reason to care about it one way or the other unless you have a tribal viewpoint.

As for the left, well I am not sure there is an official position other than waiting for more data. China is definitely sus but they are always like that from a western perspective so I don't know that I weight it much.

Other than the smugness in watching the right be wrong again, I am not aware of anyone on the left that is invested in either outcome.

It's a matter of waiting for the crucial data being found. How long did it take us to pin point the source of other pandemics?

This stuff takes time.

Internet speculation only takes seconds.

That doesn't aren't right, precisely because it validates conspiracy minded people.

In nature that happens by recombination which takes many millions of infections to emerge. In the lab you are just replicating that process by serial passage through animals where you might have a dozen animals serially infected. And the chances are probably lower because it is less likely the lab animals would wind up coinfected with another virus that would act as the source material. "Gain of function" research isn't magic.

> There absolutely, 100% was complete denial, all originating on the political left, that a leak from a lab in China was a possibility.

Well, that's just patently wrong. There was not "complete denial" by any means, as the majority of scientists were open to any and all possibility of origin. As such, the left--who was following those scientists--maintained the same position.

Saying that "there is no evidence that it was leaked" is not blanket denial. It is just that--there is no evidence, thus the possibility remains open but shouldn't be entertained as decisive.

Yet many politicians on the right, despite there being no evidence, dug their feet into the ground, convinced it was.

Not sure how you got the impression that not having evidence of something equates to "complete denial", but it's incorrect.

> Suggesting it was possible, much less plausible or even likely, was labeled racist.

We knew the virus originated in the Wuhan region of China. Don't pretend that suppression occurred because of simple discussion of the topic--it was predominantly due to politicians raging xenophobic wars by trying to rename it "The China Virus".

You are ignoring a few simple facts here.

1. The left doesn't congregate and worship at the cult of personality like the right does.

2. The first cases were in Wuhan. The right/Trumpets immediately blamed China. And this blame had exactly zero to do with any facts at the time. And in blaming China, hate crimes against all Asians increased dramatically, not even just Chinese.

3. It wasn't being called racist just saying it. It was racist being racists. Most people admitted it was a possibility, but definitely not confirmed in any way

The fact of the matter is it was turned into a political talking point.

The right says "IT IS THIS WAY BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT I BELIEVE AND IF YOU DON'T AGREE YOU ARE RADICAL LEFT"

The left says "We can't say that yet"

Learn the definition of gaslighting

Reality is there is still no definitive evidence of a lab leak and China is never going to admit to it. Trump's racist finger pointing didn't actually tangibly help US citizens. Even if he did prove it was China's fault, what was he going to do? Go to war with China? Cutoff trade our economy is inextricably tied to? It felt very much like a dog chasing a car. The dog has no clue what it'd do if it actually caught the car.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25587409

In the US, it's because this claim, or rejection of it, is strongly tied to political identity. Because the US is highly polarized right now, once political identity comes into play, you've left the realm of rationality and entered the realm of tribalism.

My stance has always been that Lab Leak required the least number of assumptions. Intent was never factored in, just that it seems awfully strange to so vehemently deny even the possibility of it being a lab leak and not want to investigate. Could it have been the wet market? Sure, but it seems less likely.

There may be some interesting reckoning happening in a few years, but probably not. Like safe and effective vaccines. It turns out, that if you did a RCT with two placebos and only called the people with placebo A vaccinated after two weeks, and called them unvaccinated if the got COVID in those two weeks. Placebo A would have the same efficacy numbers as the vaccines they rolled out.

I also thought RFK Jr was full of shit when he said the current childhood vaccines have not been tested against placebo. I was wrong there. Turns out they only test against previous versions of the vaccines, some of which are known to have serious side effects, and most of the time the previous version goes back to a time when they didn't do much testing either.

He also ordered US spy agencies to do an investigation into the lab leak hypothesis.

"The left" wasn't denying anything. It just wasn't willing to jump to conclusions prematurely. Trying to rebrand it as "The China Virus" was a transparent attempt to focus blame and hate in a particular direction.