It's interesting that while other companies are doubling down on electric vehicles, Toyota has come out and said the opposite after being one of the first companies to start.
What does Toyota see that we’re missing?
I ask this as someone who just bought an ICE vehicle, but only because there were no electric vehicles in my market segment.
From a practical perspective, I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard. If there's an extended power outage and I have an EV - I have to wait for the grid to come back up in order to drive my EV. Backup home batteries are still very expensive. Even at half their current prices they're prohibitive (compared to say an emergency gas generator).
Will these problems be solved? Probably, just not in the next few years. My wife just got a new car and we chose an ICE. I will probably replace my 2016 ICE vehicle in the next 5-10 years and I think I'll wind up with another ICE.
Be careful to not think inside a bubble. There are a LOT of cars on the road that are over 20 years old. ICE cars being bought today are going to be on the road 20+ years from now. It's going to be a long time before the majority of cars sold are electric, and even longer before most cars on the road are.
In that time, electric companies have plenty of time to ramp of electrical production.
Also, it's worth mentioning that the time most people will be charging is in the evening, when electricity usage is declining anyways. With time-of-use pricing, we could heavily incentivize charging to only occur in the dead of night when electricity usage is minimal.
The grid can handle it (Unless you're in Texas).
> Worse, costs for all electricity (home, industry, etc) will go up as demand surges.
Most people charging at home are using a 220 volt, 40-amp circuit, and charging at 32 amps. That's 7 kW. Most EV users will only need to charge for 0-3 hours/day. Overall, it doesn't represent a very large increase in electricity usage. Back when I was driving 300 miles/week, my car charging was only ~15% of my electric bill.
> My ICE vehicle won't lose range like an EV's will over time. Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced.
Unless you bought one of those shitty first-gen Leafs with the sub-90-mile battery that didn't have cooling, battery degradation isn't a concern. Yes, it happens, but it's VERY slow. About 15% after 150,000 miles. If I've gone that far, I'm more likely to be interested in buying a new car than replacing just the battery.
Besides, isn't it common for ICE vehicles to lose fuel economy over time as some parts wear out?
> [...power outage...]
Yeah, there's a fair point about being able to store "range" in a can. But...meh. Not worried about it. In the over 20 years I've been driving, it's only been an issue once, and it was because I was stupid.
Technically yes, but it’s significantly less than the range degradation on even the best electric vehicles.
I haven't done any research on this, but I want to say yes.
120V 15 amp would not have been enough to maintain my 60-mile (round trip) commute when I got my Model 3. I'd leave home at around 9 AM, get home at around 7 PM. Giving me about 14 hours to charge. That 14 hours would only give ~45 miles of charge, less in the winter.
Will still be cheaper then gas. Total cost of living will still be less.
> Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced.
Overall live-cycle cost are already higher.
And many batteries can go for a very, very long time. Even if you reach the 80% mark, they can often continue after that. Many EV batters survive the car and then go on to do other stuff for a long time. And those were first generation packs.
> I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard
Something 99% of people have never done.
Renewable sources of electricity would seem to be solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, and nuclear. According to https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-can-achieve-90... 24% of their energy is renewable today and they're planning on significantly boosting nuclear.
76% of their energy comes from gas and oil from other countries. Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers seemed to focus on their domestic market, meaning hybrids or ICE vehicles instead of EVs. Electric vehicles are becoming drastically more popular in the US and Europe.
Toyota talks about how the battery requirements of 1 EV could be used for a dozen hybrids. And they're right. But it's also besides the point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Japan
A huge ICE vehicle construction infrastructure that they don't want to throw away.