Why are the people who want to disprove the lableak theory taking a victory lap? | Hacker News Reader

Why are the people who want to disprove the lableak theory taking a victory lap?

3 pointsmoose_man6 comments

I get that the government report didn't prove that the lab leak happened, but the report just said that since they don't have access to all the data (because the Chinese government won't release it) they will never be able to conclude what happened definitively. There will never be an answer to the origin until China opens up all the data. The government report did not disprove any of the circumstantial evidence that points to a leak. There was nothing new in the report. It's not out of line to be suspicious given the embargo by the Chinese government on data.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-wuhan-lab-covid-pandemic-china-america-qhjwwwvm0

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The editorial "A Critical Analysis of the Evidence for the SARS-CoV-2 Origin Hypotheses" in the Journal of Virology at https://journals.asm.org/doi/pdf/10.1128/jvi.00365-23 compares the different hypotheses:

> Here, we summarize the scientific evidence that informs this debate to provide our fellow scientists and the public with the tools to join the discussion in a constructive and informed manner. Our goal is to dissect the evidence to make it more accessible to those interested in this important problem. ...

> Based on the scientific data collected in the last 3 years by virologists worldwide, hypotheses 1 and 2 are unlikely. Hypotheses 3 and 4 cannot be ruled out by existing evidence. Since hypotheses 1 and 2 support the lab leak theory and hypotheses 3 and 4 are consistent with a zoonotic origin, the lab leak- and zoonotic-origin explanations are not equally probable, and the available evidence favors the latter. ...

> The best existing scientific evidence supports a direct zoonotic origin. As new evidence continues to emerge from scientific studies or other investigations, our understanding of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 will continue to evolve. Nevertheless, it is possible that its origin may never be known with certainty. ...

> Given the currently available evidence, the two plausible possibilities for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 are not equally likely. Continuing to frame them as such does us all a disservice, dilutes our efforts, and misdirects resources—only serving to weaken our ability to respond to future pandemics.

Without the full data and an open investigation anything claiming any sort of definitive conclusion for or against lab leak is just propaganda. There are gaping holes in the evidence on both sides. Both the left and the right in the US are waging a political war on normal people.

The claim that it's "just propaganda" is itself propaganda.

As I quoted: "Continuing to frame them as such does us all a disservice, dilutes our efforts, and misdirects resources—only serving to weaken our ability to respond to future pandemics"

> claiming any sort of definitive conclusion

Which, you'll notice, that editorial does not do.

I quoted it: "it is possible that its origin may never be known with certainty"

It makes the weaker statement: "the two plausible possibilities for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 are not equally likely" and "the available evidence favors" a zoonotic origin.

> There are gaping holes in the evidence on both sides.

Where are the gaping holes in the conclusions of that editorial I pointed to? It sure comes across like there are far larger holes in the lab leak hypothesis than the zoonotic one.

> Without the full data

And until then, what, we do nothing?

It's not like we need full data to draw useful scientific conclusions, nor to make policy decisions. We do it all the time for other fields - what makes this one special?

> Both the left and the right in the US are waging a political war on normal people.

What a shame there aren't virologists elsewhere in the world studying this topic and publishing their own research.

Like, no one in France is able to draw a similar conclusion - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512... .

> Both the left and the right in the US are waging a political war on normal people.

To be fair, if those normal people had to reconcile Chinese slave labor with affordable luxury goods, they might wish we knew less about how the sausage is made. But largely I agree - this is a bipartisan cycle of neglect that lets China get away with far too much.

I just don’t understand why anyone cares about the lab leak theory - proving or disproving. What do you think would happen? That China would be held accountable? Pffft.

Because most people online are sycophantic attention seekers, not scholars. Both sides of this argument are jumping to conclusions and making it harder to prove the other wrong.

Furthermore, if we held China accountable for the shit they did then we wouldn't be doing business with them today. There is a common interest across the aisle to not actually give a shit about child labor, suicide nets or Uighur extermination. And who can blame them, their conscience is preoccupied with greater things like Twitter and Burger King.

So... this is what we get for letting relations fester so long. Our reward for economic hubris. Ready for the next iPhone?

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