Comment by Gwypaas | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Gwypaas | Hacker News Reader

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The Indian Ocean one less than ten years prior?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_a...

Following that multiple studies showed that Fukushima could get hit by +15m tsunamis and suggested heightening the sea wall.

Now you are trying to redefine Black Swan to fit your narrative.

Take what the author said about COVID-19.

> According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties.

Similarly, there is a great certainty that a +15m tsunami will hit any of the existing nuclear power plants in Japan. Fukushima was not a Black Swan, simply human negligence.

> Now you are trying to redefine Black Swan to fit your narrative.

Ah yes. It's my bad. "The most powerful earthquake ever recorded in Japan, and the fourth most powerful earthquake recorded in the world since modern seismography began in 1900" can never be classified as a Black Swan event, and I apologize for my mistake.

As for tsunami,

"The sea walls in several cities had been built to protect against tsunamis of much lower heights. Also, many people caught in the tsunami thought they were on high enough ground to be safe. According to a special committee on disaster prevention designated by the Japanese government, the tsunami protection policy had been intended to deal with only tsunamis that had been scientifically proved to occur repeatedly."

My apologies, this wasn't a Black Swan event either. Totally predictable, and not beyond what's normally expected.

> According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place,

It's funny how all Nostradamuses "prove" their vague predictions only after something occurs.

What was it said about black swan events?

"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."

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