will this slow down the US innovation rate?
There are companies which develop leading edge products that depend on lasers, LEDs or gallium nitride power transistors.
If China really cuts the exports of gallium and germanium, then such companies might have to reduce the volume of their production and to raise prices, which would lead to lower sales. Lower sales would cause lower profits, so maybe less money will be spent on research.
Gallium and germanium are widespread, but their extraction processes are extremely expensive.
A shortage would rise their prices, which would stimulate the creation of new mines and refining plants. However, that would require a few years. China has just been hit by a new wave of US sanctions that will make difficult for them to continue the production of some semiconductor devices, but they should also be able to become self sufficient in a few years.
ASML is a really good example.
This Black Friday might be a good opportunity to upgrade any older tech around the house as the deals could be the best in a while/for a while with the drop off in shipping prices earlier this year and the financial issues some retailers have had. Who knows, next year we could see price bumps on a lot of tech because TSMC’s output has to reduce for whatever reason