>If these people were so concerned, they'd by shouting from the hilltops and throwing their entire life savings into stopping us. They would organize workplace walkouts and strikes. There would be protests and banners. Burning data centers.

I think we underestimate the intoxicating lure of human complacency at our own peril. If I think there's a 90% chance that AI will kill me in the next 20 years, maybe I'd be doing this. Of course, there is a knowing perception that appearing too unhinged can be detrimental to the cause, eg. actually instigating terrorist attacks against AI research labs may backfire.

But if I only think there's a 25% chance? Ehh. My life will be less-stressed if I don't think about it too much, and just go on as normal. I'm going to die eventually anyways, if it's part of a singularity event then I imagine it will be quick and not too painful.

Of course, if the 25% estimate were accurate, then it's by far the most important policy issue of the current day.

Also of course there are collective action problems. If I think there's a 90% chance AI will kill me, then do I really think I can bring that down appreciably? Probably not. I could probably still have a bigger positive impact on my life expectancy by say dieting better. And let's see how good humans are at that..