That's an accurate assessment of the situation, according to every AI alignment researcher I've seen talk about it, including the relatively optimistic ones. This includes people who are mainly focused on AI capabilities but have real knowledge of alignment.
This part in particular caught my eye: "Other assumptions could also break down in the future, like favorable generalization properties during deployment". There have been actual experiments in which AIs appeared to successfully learn their objective in training, and then did something unexpected when released into a broader environment.[1]
I've seen some leading AI researchers dismiss alignment concerns, but without actually engaging with the arguments at all. I've seen no serious rebuttals that actually address the things the alignment people are concerned about.