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Comment by 0x486566e7279 | Hacker News Reader

Ontario is almost fully renewable, and we export electricity along with Quebec, I don’t see the joke here? We don’t have a power crunch in Ontario, no need to cut corners to get this out the door quicker.

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This is outright false[0] - 27% of Ontario's power is gas, with a possibility of 59% nuclear[1] but the nuclear infrastructure in Ontario is aging and shutdowns/refurbishments is pushing Ontario towards >50% gas (and imported coal/gas) as of this summer[2]. Further, per IESO[3] Ontario is facing a 2GW shortfall this August. Maybe if not mismanaged, Ontario could be an exporter - but the joke is that's not the case anymore

[0]https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply... [1]https://www.ieso.ca/en/Corporate-IESO/Media/News-Releases/20... [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON [3] (PDF) https://www.ieso.ca/-/media/Files/IESO/Document-Library/plan...

It’s not outright false you are looking at capacity, I am talking about actual output. The last year natural gas was 10% total output, the year before was 8%. Now I agree this has not been managed well, and we are in a worse place than we were on 2019. I didn’t realize how much worse off in the last couple years it got, but we are not in a power crunch, there will be no rolling blackouts.

Interested to know the source for that 10% number.

Using this tool I'm seeing 12 months consumption at 17.4% gas. Last 30 days 28.47% (61% capacity). Gas capacity has been phased out as base load. https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON

IESO confirms this https://www.ieso.ca/power-data (Supply tab)

Ontario will be dependent on 2000MW (~10% of demand) which has to come from areas also facing shortfalls. NERC puts the majority of the US as well as Ontario in "elevated risk in above-normal conditions". https://globalnews.ca/news/9752079/ontario-risk-summer-power...

Rolling blackouts could happen in “extreme but plausible scenarios” like a "once in a decade" heat wave (NERC).

We're facing climate change temps, population growth strained infrastructure and phased out gas plants. I hope it doesn't happen, but the possibility is worth having a personal plan.

https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply...

Look at output.

We do have a power crunch coming; take a look at the IESO annual planning outlook[1]. Page 78/79 of the 2022 APO show grid emissions dramatically increasing - due to the transition to gas generation. Also take a look at resource adequacy on page 42 - Ontario is coming into a deficit hence the recommendation to procure 4,000MW asap.

Emissions factor is on track to almost triple between now and 2040. Plus, emissions scope doesn't include out of jurisdiction - the planned Lake Erie connector will bring in electricity from Pennsylvania which is significantly higher emissions due to coal. The Ministry of Energy requested the IESO review emissions impacts of this project however results have not been made public (...because it's high emissions).

[1] https://www.ieso.ca/en/Sector-Participants/Planning-and-Fore...

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