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And yet I doubt you would be willing to bet against the sun rising tomorrow.

Our understanding is based on imperfect models, sure. That doesn't matter most of the time. It wouldn't matter in this bet.

So much of what any lifeform does is based on past experience, even though that experience isn't the direct driver of future effects. Turns out that bets based on experience work really well.

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Of course I’d bet the sun would rise tomorrow, because if it doesn’t, I’m either dead or money will be worthless…

The same applies here, would you bet on a horse that is flagging (RSA won’t work forever)? We have the ability to take in new information, and throw away past information because it is no longer relevant. If you choose to ignore the new information, just because “it’s always been that way”, that doesn’t seem rational.

Indeed. The sun has successfully rose every morning, hundreds of billions of times straight! That's a pretty good record.

Do you have a proof of that?

I've been to places where the sun doesn't rise for months on end...

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