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Given that passkeys are tied to a hardware ID does that mean people will eventually stop using VPN's, given they can potentially be de-cloaked by anything that can talk to their TPM?

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Passkeys are not tied to hardware. You can save them in iCloud, Bitwarden and lots of other tools. You can also share them to another device [1]

[1] https://developer.apple.com/passkeys/

I am factoring friction and laziness into this. Just about everyone excluding apple hardware has a TPM and it's already paid for. Not everyone has iCloud, Bitwarden or other tools. So there is what people can do vs what people will do and I think they will be guided if not now, then eventually into using the TPM since it is already present. People tend to follow the least path of clicks. Windows for example automatically takes ownership of the TPM by default.

People on Apple hardware will probably use iCloud which may be tied to their real identity. This creates a lot more questions for me but that is probably best saved for it's own thread.

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