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> I've only seen grifters, hysterics, or the ignorant talking about existential AI risk.

Which category would you put Geoffrey Hinton in? https://www.utoronto.ca/news/risks-artificial-intelligence-m...

hysterics. Remember when he said we should stop training radiologists, that’s aged pretty poorly given there’s actually a need to have more:

https://www.rsna.org/news/2022/may/global-radiologist-shorta...

https://mindmatters.ai/2022/08/turns-out-computers-are-not-v...

So because he made one(+) bad prediction, all future predictions are inherently poor? It seems that may be a tad of a leap? Where is the line between "poor prediction" and "hysterics"?

"Deep learning will replace radiologists within 5 years" isn't as inherently crazy as it probably seems in hindsight. Sure, it didn't pan out, but I know a vet who works for an Ai company classifying scans for training and he says first hand the models have gotten a lot better. That said, he's still not worried about being replaced.

When the prediction is so bombastic as to prescribe a near future without doubt and be completely wrong then yes, that would be hysterics in my book.

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