Community Note correcting Musk’s anti-vax tweet mysteriously disappears
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Comparing the risk of myocarditis from vaccines to the risk of myocarditis from actually getting covid is not a helpful comparison.
Generally speaking, everyone is going to get covid whether you are vaxxed or unvaxxed. So the question is whether adding vaccines into the mix REDUCES the overall myocarditis risk or increases it.
In other words
(Covid infection myocarditis risk + vaccine myocarditis risk) VS (covid infection myocarditis risk)
From https://www.heart.org/en/news/2022/08/22/covid-19-infection-...
"But the risk of myocarditis associated with the vaccine was lower than the risk associated with COVID-19 infection before or after vaccination – with one exception. Men under 40 who received a second dose of the Moderna vaccine had a higher risk of myocarditis following vaccination. The Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines are available in the U.S."
Unless I am horribly misreading this, it seems that
(Covid infection + non-moderna vaccine), has a lower risk of myocarditis than (covid infection + no vaccine)
EXCEPT in men under 40 receiving moderna.
In that case, (covid infection + moderna), has a HIGHER risk than (covid infection + no vaccine)
Can anyone correct me if I am reading this wrong?
The decrease in serious illness is due to prior immunity and vaccination.
Though it’s obviously a hard thing to prove either way. But certainly I do not think it should be assumed that omicron is inherently more mild.
Here is recent, high quality one, but there are many more (and some with conflicting results - but to my eye the best studies all point to similar conclusions).
By itself, this carries a high "we found a link between green jelly beans and acne" flavor (xkcd/882). But even if it's not there, there are a lot of other complicating factors.
Those studies about myocarditis were important because they derived improvements on the procedure to apply intramuscular vaccines. But that improvement by itself is enough to invalidate any findings you will find on any such study from that time.
I frequently see someone screencapping someone's tweet + the community note to go "haha pwned" but then I visit the tweet and the note is long gone.
Also, a lot of notes are low quality and seemingly upvoted just because they counter the tweet at all.
The "community" itself isn't really one entity with a coherent position on any particular matter. The "community" is just a byproduct of people coming together to engage in discussion.
If somebody wanted to try to refute what somebody else claimed, it should have been done at an individual level, through the existing discussion mechanisms (a reply, or a new tweet, or an off-Twitter article/video, and so on).
The problem is how widely a shit-tier or dangerous or bullshit tweet can spread, yet few people are going to click into it to read the replies, and there's no guarantee that a tweet that goes "Um, this is BS and here's why: <link>" is going to appear at the top.
There's probably a better implementation of community notes. Like perhaps a way to vote existing replies or quote replies into community-note-status which you might agree with. But the value is showing a countervailing message inline with the original tweet since that's all people are going to read.
If only social media sites had some kind of voting or points system that contributes to visibility?
The basic problem here is that high quality moderation is extremely expensive but low quality moderation outrages its victims and is susceptible to manipulation by partisans and SEO scum.
As far as I can tell the best solution is to make filtering modular so that it's independent of the hosting site. Then the site doesn't get dumped on for screwing it up and if you don't like some particular solution you personally can switch to another one without losing the network effect, or try your hand at doing it yourself to see how much fun it can be.
But controlling the filter through which everybody sees everything is valuable and it's hard to get anyone in a position of power to give that up.
From what I've seen personally, bad notes only tend to make it through early and for a short duration. Once someone retweets with more credible information that wasn't well understood at first, the note isn't able to survive.
Musk has lost all benefit of the doubt, and then some.
Definitely true for many. Elon Musk is enemy number one since he disrupted social media. It is getting to the point that I have coworkers posting snide off-topic comments on internal chat throughout the day whenever he does something. All of his achievements are ascribed to luck, and every Twitter change is bad and attributed to his personal meddling. It's not entirely unwarranted considering there is some precedent, but the public hysteria is disproportionate for sure.
I’m sure lynch mentality is more involved and includes other motivations such as wanting to kill somebody. You’re taking things a bit too far.
It takes far more energy to debunk bullshit than create it.
Whether he actually did in this case hardly matters. Twitter/X is Musk's toy and he's going to play with it in whatever way pleases him.
One should already bake into their perception of Twitter/X an expectation that Musk will use it for his own ideological purposes, and weigh their trust in the platform accordingly.
Musk is an infamous controversial figure. To find out if he's a hypocrite, or more of a hypocrite than the average rando, you would need some evidence. But because he's an infamous controversial figure, it's easy to find a mountain of unsubstantiated innuendo. The volume of it tells you nothing except that he has a lot of critics. To know anything you would have to look at specific examples.
This one doesn't seem strong.
What is "anti-vaxx" about that tweet? It is absolutely mundane and trivially true.
And just for reference: I myself am triple vaccinated (waited a bit too long for my 4th booster and then got it, damn), and a total vaccine enthusiast. As in the vaccines are amazing, both in general and in particularly the COVID vaccines.
For further reference, last I checked the German health authorities still only recommend COVID vaccination for children with pre-existing conditions, pretty much due to the risk/reward tradeoff.
(I personally would be more in favour than they).
And the community note didn't really make sense, as what he said was not about relative frequencies, but about the question of whether myocarditis is a common side effect or not...and even on that he didn't give an opinion.
Humor me. Musk made a very short statement with a single factual claim: "Myocarditis is a known side-effect [of a vaccine.]"
The community note correcting it says that Covid causes more myocarditis than that covid vaccine.
How is that a correction? It's a snarky verification.
[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/technology/twitter-suspen...
It's not hard to find instances.
Note, I think it's fine for companies to moderate speech on their platforms. No objections there. Just don't simultaneously claim you are some sort of free speech absolutist.
You understand that you were asked for one, right? This is not one, this is a vague claim being repeated.
> he stated that "cis" will be disallowed on the platform
No, he didn't. He said that "cis" being thrown as an insult to people who didn't wish to be called "cis" wouldn't automatically be discounted as harassment. Maybe I'm wrong about this - can you find a single person that was banned or censored by twitter for saying "cis?"
> It's not hard to find instances.
If it's too hard for you to do, why do you expect others to believe you when you say this?
There's more ways to be outside the Overton window, Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
I don't know what you mean by freedom on consequences. I guess a consequence of speech could be to get your account banned? If anything Twitter leaving up your objectionable content would result in more likely conferences of being fired or something.
Objectionable to whom? Elon seems to have no issue blocking speech objectionable to pseudo-dictators[1] or declaring that cis/cisgendered are slurs that can get you suspended. He seems fine with blocking speech objectionable to those that agree with his political sensibilities.
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/13/turkey-...
It was always about the kind of speech that was being banned. Movement Democrats like to think of themselves as left-wing, so everything that opposes their party becomes right-wing, including people to the left of them. Movement Democrats weren't being banned for spreading misinformation, they were being encouraged.
> free to harass and insult people, freedom from consequences.
There were only consequences on one side with old twitter.
This is why we try to put these things in constitutions for governments, and build decentralized systems with no bureaucratic chokepoints for communications networks.
You could say it is simply a derivative of the mindset that nearly everyone holds "liberty for me, but not for thee". We just tend to ignore or think it is irrelevant when nobody holds power.
Yes, Elon and X can never be taken seriously on free speech without a pivot towards decentralization. What is happening with X is precisely the opposite. The "everything" app only provides opportunity for more control which will result in less freedom inevitably.
The same is true of anything else. People demand their privacy and then look through their partner's phone etc.
> We just tend to ignore or think it is irrelevant when nobody holds power.
"Nobody holds power over others" is an impossible perfection but getting closer to it is a primary goal of a good society.
> Yes, Elon and X can never be taken seriously on free speech without a pivot towards decentralization. What is happening with X is precisely the opposite. The "everything" app only provides opportunity for more control which will result in less freedom inevitably.
"Everything app" is some kind of marketing BS. Is the same app supposed to protect your anonymity and do your taxes? Hold your medical records and implement opaque buggy video game anti-cheat systems? That is either a farce or a dystopia.
But in practice he probably just means they're going to add some Tesla integration or cryptocurrency thing to Twitter and then people can take it or leave it.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...
Funny how wrong the Community Note was.
Obviously vaccine × virus aren't an xor. Many people have already had the virus by the time they were forced to take the vaccine. For those people the myocarditis risk was a strict net negative.
Those parroting this point forget to mention that hospitals across the country were collapsing because of COVID-19 patient admissions.
How does hospitals collapsing change that?
You are now suggesting that vaccines did not prevent severe illness, which is not true.
Vaccinations were a matter of public health. Vaccines did not prevent infections, but they prevented severe illness.
The healthcare system was collapsing under the pressure from hundreds of thousands of patients suffering from severe illness. This would put any other people seeking for care at risk, since they could not get it.
Since vaccinations would prevent severe illness, that would alleviate the pressure on the system, thus making care available to people who otherwise wouldn't be able to get it.
It's not that hard to understand.
You are arguing against a straw man of your own invention.
It seems that you aren't aware of the precarious situation of the healthcare system during the pandemic. Either that, or you like to move goalposts.
People are still so polarized though, I expect the really interesting information is a few years out until it's somewhat settled.
[1] https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298
[2] https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2022/12/424546/covid-19-vaccines-p...
Yes, nobody came with a gun and "forced" them to take it, but significant economic coercision meets my definition of force.
Military members are vaccinated against a myriad of illnesses right after joining. They are also required to follow a bunch of rules, some of which severely restrict the practice of their first amendment rights.
They weren't "forced", as much as they have to agree with the DoD rules to work for them.
Obligatory "I'm pro vaccine".
The fact that the military lifts people out of poverty is a great thing. It's a damned hard life being in the military, especially if you make a career out of it. But four years of service with a decent shot at an education and solid employment when you get out is a fair trade.
That's exactly my point. You join the Marines and you get all of the benefits and drawbacks you enumerated. You don't and you get to live in poverty. I think that can be described as coercive.
To be clear, I'm not against the Marine corps or their vaccine policies. I just don't think coercion (even if it originates outside the Marine Corps) can be removed from _some_ people's choice to join.
We both landed in largely the same spot. My friend just gets a ton of extra benefits from his service that have really added up over time. He hated being in the military, but he straight up says it's the best decision he's ever made.
My younger brother took the Navy enlisted -> retirement route (just hit rank where he can get 20 years, E6 I think), and while it's been hard, he says the same thing. Despite the injuries, moving constantly, deployments away from family, pay fuckups, and garbage housing, he loves it. And he'll retire at 42 or something with a pension and paid health care, after which, he'll get paid to go back to school then get a cushy tech gig at a DoD contractor.
Having seen people go through it, I think it's a good deal. Not just for people in poverty, but middle/upper class people too. I'm the last person you'd take for a "support our troops" guy, but I'd absolutely encourage my kids to do military service.
I hope it lasts. Surely every generation has faced the challenge to uphold the same principles as The United States Marine Corps but, just as certainly, the struggle of today seem more perilous than before.
I often think of how the British refused to burn down a Marine Corps barracks during The War of 1812 out of respect for an honorable opponent.
That's a loaded conundrum, but isn't this also true about pretty much any other job, especially in the US?
I also watched a lot of people get vaccinated and rack up multiple infections in the following year.
My wife convinced me to do it but I was very conflicted internally. I ended up fine and still haven't had an infection, as far as I know.
My brother desisted and wore a mask all the time at work, he cought it once, maybe twice.
Whatever the results are in the end, the damage to people's trust in the government, pharmaceuticals, and media may never be repaired, pro or anti mRNA vaccine.
It's a real tragedy.
Either way, the coercion in the equation is constant. And that doesn't have to be a bad thing. But it is something we can acknowledge and then determine if X degree of coercion for Y outcome was moral, valid, justifiable, etc. But the coercion existed regardless of our conclusion of its utility.
The fact that they have the most to gain from unionization, socialized healthcare, excellent public education, etc. yet seem to support the politics most beneficial to the wealthy and powerful seems like more than a coincidence to me.
Ok, but I hope you apply that criterion to every situation, and not just vaccination.
I find it interesting to consider the Venn diagram of people who claim that vaccination was forced and people who claim that everything (else) that happens in the free market is voluntary.
The federally-imposed policy affected many people, given how it involved the transportation sector, in addition to federal government staff:
"Prime Minister announces mandatory vaccination for the federal workforce and federally regulated transportation sectors" (October 6, 2021)
https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2021/10/06/prime-...
The largest cities forced their staff, too. Here are the announcements for Toronto and Vancouver, for example:
"City of Toronto announces mandatory COVID-19 vaccination for its employees" (August 19, 2021)
https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-announces-mandat...
"City announces mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy" (October 18, 2021)
https://vancouver.ca/news-calendar/city-announces-mandatory-...
Those are just a few examples that had a pretty widespread impact.
Moreover previously infected individuals did receive additional future immunity and protection against severe disease and death from vaccine shots so receiving the shot was not “strictly a net negative” regardless.