tbh west does not have much carrots or sticks to nudge - not to mention they'll be nudging towards affordable PRC renewables or nuclear considering poor state of western energy infra export. Really only agent that can nudge is PRC as current dominant infra exporter who did ramped down coal plant funding on BRI which is somewhat sigificant long term. Short medium PRC still going to be building more domestic coal than rest of world combined and there isn't anyone that can pressure PRC to change her energy security considerations under current geopolitical climate. Long term global, post RU sanctions, less developing countries are going to rely on western high tech for something as critical as energy. Emphasis on high tech, like fusion or nuclear or other sufficiently advanced energy solutions developing countries can't hope to replicate or substitute if ever sanctioned/denied. I predict relatively accessible low tech energy generation like fossil fuels and renewables like wind/solar/hydro is going to remain mainstay of energy mix because we are entering world where global south are less likely to depend on west for critical infra. Which is to say they'll be burning a lot more coal for base load power.