> It's been shown that teams of such researchers consistently beat prediction markets on these sorts of topics.
This sounds like free money.
This sounds like free money.
Edit for context: Good Judgement Inc. is a sort of consultancy firm formed based on the results of an experiment called "The good judgment project" where psychologists challenged a community to predict (geopolitical) events. By structuring it as a team based tournament they figured out a list of qualities/rules that would make an individual or theme very good at accurately predicting events. The teams that followed these rules outperformed prediction markets. Following the rules is basically a full time commitment.
The list is here, go get your free money: https://goodjudgment.com/philip-tetlocks-10-commandments-of-...
You get your money from the prediction market if you are better at predicting.