This is only true because the UX of mastodon, Gemini, GrapheneOS, and other darlings of the non-commercial web crowd are so bad that the only reason to use them over commercial alternatives is ideological.
Which, for Gemini at least, is intentional.
So I guess I agree that the web is fracturing but the post makes it sound like some kind of battle between the commercial side and the 'tech savvy's side, as the post refers to it, when really it is just a minority of tech ideologues rejecting commercial tech, a tale at least as old as Stallman and not particularly interesting.
Like the famous scene from Mad Men:
Tech Savvy Web: "I feel bad for you, commercial web"
Commercial Web: "I don't think about you at all"