I don't know if you work in this field, but you are putting way too much faith in what has been reported so far
People are way, way overconfident. Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.
People are way, way overconfident. Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.
Do you have a source for this claim? It sounds like you just made it up.
But, for what it's worth, as both an LK-99 optimist and as someone who has worked in the field and who still talks to people in it, most people in it seem to put the chances well below 50%.