Trump and Math: Deal or No Deal?

For something with “math” in the title, this article sure has a lot of basic statistical mistakes (like, things you learn not to do in an intro course).

It's a good analysis but I think he's leaving out some key factors.

I don't see Trump ever agreeing to jail time, and I don't see the prosecutors letting him get away without it. There are too many charges of too great significance.

Further, Trump doesn't do math well. He has people around him who can, but he would prefer to take a long shot. And that is what his supporters love about him. He represents the triumph of wishful thinking over reality, and has a habit of success at it.

It would take only one minor catastrophe to turn public opinion against Biden: in Ukraine, in the economy, on China. If gas prices are up over six dollars next November he cannot win, which could happen in many different ways. Trump may not be able to influence them (though Putin might on his behalf), but he would rather take his chances.

And even if he loses, there is still one more hope for him: a "protège" who runs on a promise to free him. Trump would make a highly flexible martyr.