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All great reasoning. Unfortunately I believe it's a fake from an Occam's razor standpoint: it's too short and precisely framed.

It's trivial to record a video 20x longer with a moving POV without revealing IP or secrets, but far from easy to product 20x more doctored vfx.

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Not really true. It depends on how you do your CGI, if you have a setup with camera tracking and a 3D compositing pipeline as well as some sort of particle system for the dynamics, you could produce an infinite amount of VFX. It really depends on the specifics of how you set it up.

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