Ask HN: Do countries learn from past wars in a statistically significant way?

2 points·amichail··5 comments

Do leaders consult both historians and statisticians to decide what to do about current conflicts based on what can be learned from history in a statistically significant way?

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Look up bounded rationality. You might have access to knowledge but not to resources. Resources may exist but not enough time. Resources and time maybe available but not enough skill etc etc Obama spent lot of time with academics but didnt really pull off anything interesting. Herbert Simon - decision makers have to satisfice - either by finding optimum solutions for a simplified world, or by finding satisfactory solutions for a more realistic world. Neither approach dominates the other.

It can go the wrong way. A successful war like the first Gulf War or Russia’s invasion of Crimea can give the confidence to attempt a less successful war like the Iraq war or the recent invasion of the rest of z ukraine.

Have there been enough wars to make statistically significant predictions about current/future conflicts?

There are these trends

https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace

on the other hand, I often wonder if the Americana attitude towards war and violence is different from Europeans who can still very immediately see effects from world war 2. Americans haven’t been touched on continental soil, but you can still see bullet holes in some buildings in Germany from WW2. That’s gotta change the perception of things at some level, imo.

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