Given the amounts of money and attention being bought to bear? It'll be 12-24 months or less.

Tonight I'm going to play around with LLMs. I'm probably going to go to bed early because my AMD graphics card running ROCm (on an unsupported system and a probably unsupported graphics card) will eventually cause a kernel panic.

In some sense that is unforgivable. In other senses, they are only 1-2 bugs away from being perfectly good enough and competitive with Nvidia for me. That isn't much of a moat. It usually takes an hour or so for the drivers to collapse and for those hours everything works great.