Yes exactly. Which means it's extremely, extremely low.
Even though the probably of a meteorite hitting somewhere is high, the probability of hitting somewhere in particular is tiny.
Even though the probably of a meteorite hitting somewhere is high, the probability of hitting somewhere in particular is tiny.
- "What's the probability that a meteor hits an object of cultural significance?" -> vastly lower than the probability that the meteor hits something of non-cultural significance.
- "What's the probability that a meteor hits a given object of cultural significance?" -> Proportional to object size + age.
Maybe the sphinx isn't a bad candidate for the only object of cultural significance impacted by a meteor? Still seems unusually improbable however.
The same reasoning applies to two UUIDs or Git hashes matching by accident: of negligible probability, yet easily proven if it happens.
Is there any evidence?
I think the headdress was supposed to have been covered in gold leaf, which might have attracted lightning strikes. Just cracking from normal weathering and falling off is the most likely cause, though. It seems like a thing that they would have liked to blame on something dramatic like a thunderbolt.
Regardless, I realize other posters linked to pretty good evidence that this isn't what happened.